Even after former President Donald Trump's criminal conviction, he still leads President Joe Biden by nearly 20 percentage points among Iowa voters, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
According to the results of a poll released Monday, 50% of Iowa voters said they would support Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, if the general election were held today. Incumbent President Biden, who defeated Trump in the 2020 election, received the support of 32% of voters.
Outside of the two main candidates, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who lost to Biden for the Democratic nomination and is running as an independent, received the most support. The poll found that 9% of voters supported Kennedy, while Libertarian presidential candidate Chase Oliver had the support of 2% of voters. Another 3% said they would support another candidate, 1% said they would not vote and 3% said they didn't know.
Trump won 53% of the vote in Iowa in the 2020 presidential election to Biden's 45%. He also won 52% of the vote in the state in 2016 to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton's 42%. The latest polling results show Trump leading his Democratic opponent by 18 percentage points heading into the November 5 election. Previous Iowa polls this election cycle have shown a similar margin, with a March poll showing Trump leading Biden 48% to 33%.
This latest finding comes shortly after a New York jury found former President Trump guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records related to hush money payments made during the 2016 election.
While other polls have found that independents and swing voters are less likely to support Trump after the verdict, the Iowa poll found that Trump still enjoys a higher approval rating among voters than Biden. The Republican presidential candidate is viewed favorably by 51% of respondents and unfavorably by 47%. Meanwhile, Biden is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 66%.
Compared to the March poll, more independents in Iowa have a positive view of Trump: 48% of independents view Trump favorably, while 50% view him unfavorably. This is a better margin than the 42% to 53% favorability rating Trump received in the previous poll. However, Trump still fares worse among independent women, with 41% viewing him favorably and 58% viewing him unfavorably.
While Biden's favorability rating is generally positive, there is still a significant number of Iowans who strongly dislike Trump. In the poll, 37% of Iowans said they have a “very unfavorable” view of Trump, while 50% said their feelings about Biden are “very unfavorable.”
The poll found that 13% of respondents have an unfavorable view of both presidential candidates. Among this group of so-called “neither candidates” voters, 26% plan to vote for Biden, more than Trump (16%). Among those who have an unfavorable view of both Biden and Trump, 26% support Kennedy, who held an event in April to qualify for Iowa's general election ballot.
The Iowa poll was conducted June 9-14 by Selzer & Company of Des Moines. Results are based on responses from 806 Iowa adults and have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Of the respondents, 632 were likely voters, and the question for this group has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
