The 2024 presidential election has been frozen, with former President Donald Trump holding a slim lead nationally and in battleground states since last fall.
A lot has happened since then, including the felony convictions of President Trump and President Joe Biden's son Hunter, but the poll movement has been muted at best.
Barring an unpredictable external event — a foreign policy crisis, a natural disaster or health issues for an older major party candidate — there are still several opportunities to shake up the race.
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Discussion
Biden and Trump are scheduled to debate for the first time on June 27. A second debate is scheduled for September.
As the incumbent, Trump goes into the debate facing questions about his age — he'll turn 82 shortly after the election and 86 at the end of his second term — and his physical strength. Trump turned 78 on Friday and faces higher expectations that could work against him.
This is an early debate, before either candidate is the party's nominee, so the loser may be able to minimize the electoral impact of a poor performance. But if Biden stumbles, it will spark rumors that Democrats will stage an “August surprise” by replacing him at the convention or even dropping him from the race. Vice President Kamala Harris's sagging approval ratings could be the ultimate insurance policy.
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Historically, the state of the race becomes clearer after the two party conventions, and political reporters eagerly await the infighting and drama of conventions, which in modern times have become an extension of TV commercials for the candidates.
The Republican National Convention comes just days after Trump was found guilty in a New York hush-money trial, and there have been reports, though some Republicans have denied, that contingency plans are being made in case Trump's sentence means he cannot physically be in Milwaukee.
Democrats fear protests and even violence. Progressive activists remain angry at Biden for his relative support of Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza; some have called him “Genocide Joe.” Anti-war protests and clashes with police at the 1968 Democratic National Convention became a symbol of a troubled country and helped elect Richard Nixon. A post-9/11 convention would be much harder for protesters to get into, but the real action may be outside the convention grounds.
President Trump's ruling
Democrats will be banking on Trump's new status as a convicted felon, with his sentence set to be handed down before the Republican National Convention, and any prison time or probation could become a political hot potato that could have an impact on the election campaign.
Note the word “may.” When the judge in the New York case threatened to jail Trump for repeated violations of the silence rule, he also made it clear that he recognized the importance of jailing a former president, and possibly a future president.
Trump's multiple indictments helped him in the Republican primaries, but had little impact on the general election polls. The same was true for E. Jean Carroll v. New York's civil fraud conviction. After Trump's hush money conviction, the polls appeared to drop slightly. Trump now leads nationally by 0.8 percentage points. Real Clear Politics The polling average was partially offset by growing Republican support and increased fundraising.
There's no guarantee that Trump's ruling will change the dynamics of the race or even work against him, but we won't know until it does.
Hunter Biden's tax trial
Trump will not have any new cases against him go to trial before the election; Hunter Biden is due to go on trial in September.
Democrats will likely repeat frequently that Hunter Biden is not running for president, but his legal woes would put additional strain on his father and the possibility of prison time would put some pressure on the incumbent to grant a pardon, something the president and White House have said they will not do.
To read more from the Washington Examiner, click here
Democrats' main argument will be that Hunter Biden's trial will undermine Trump's claims that the justice system is being used as a weapon against Republicans, who will bring up First Son's shady overseas business dealings and link them to the president.
A race between two highly-known candidates, both of whom have served in the White House, may not be subject to the usual campaign dynamics. The cake may be baked. But if anything could change the parameters of this race, it would be this possibility:
