As President Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare for their first televised debate, NPR/PBS NewsA Marist poll found the two candidates equally popular among registered voters nationwide.
Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images; Bill Pagliano/Getty Images
Hide Caption
Toggle caption
Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images; Bill Pagliano/Getty Images
The presidential election remains essentially tied as President Biden and former President Donald Trump prepare for their first televised debate next week.
According to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released Tuesday, Biden and Trump together had the support of 49% of registered voters nationwide, which includes undecided voters leaning toward one candidate or the other. The poll's margin of error was about 4 percentage points.
This is little changed from last month's poll.
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Public Opinion Institute, which conducted the survey, said most voters have already decided who they will vote for in the presidential election.
However, 9% of voters said they hadn't yet decided who they would vote for, and 25% said they had a “pretty good idea” of who they would vote for but “could still change their mind.” [their] heart. “
“I think this kind of supports the idea that we're still many months away,” Miringoff said.
The first of two scheduled presidential debates is on June 27, and six in 10 survey respondents said they plan to watch it. With no debates or conventions yet to take place, voters are likely to tell pollsters they are “prepared to wait and see how things unfold,” Miringoff said.
“Even if they end up reverting back to their old ways, they interpret these events in a way that reinforces what they already think,” he said.
The poll found that younger voters and non-white voters were particularly likely to say the outcome of their vote could change than other groups, with about 55% of both groups saying they knew for sure who they would vote for.
The poll also found that Biden is gaining support among independents, with his approval rating among them rising to 50% from 42% in last month's poll.
“This group may be the one most affected by the outcome of Donald Trump's legal challenges,” Miringoff said, “but independents are much easier to persuade on a range of issues that will affect the outcome of the election.”
Survey participant David North, an independent voter from Connecticut, said he would have supported Republican candidates up until eight years ago but is now likely to vote for Biden in November.
“I think we have to pick Biden because he's an old-fashioned, slick politician who knows how to get things done,” he said. “They may not like his accomplishments, but at least he's playing by our traditional rules.”
The poll found that Biden has an advantage among independents, while Trump has an edge among voters who do not support either candidate.
Miringoff also said some of the more unusual voter patterns in this election are “now starting to normalize a little bit.”
For example, Biden had been performing better than expected among white voters, but since last month's poll, Trump's lead among white voters has doubled from 6 points to 12 points.
Conversely, Biden is beginning to make gains among non-white voters. The latest poll finds Biden (58%) leading Trump (40%) by 18 percentage points. The president previously held an 11 percentage point lead among this demographic.
In the broader battle of independents and third-party candidates, Trump is leading Biden, 42% to 41%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has not yet qualified to participate in next week's CNN debate, is in third place with 11% support.
“What's interesting is that Robert Kennedy, who received the most votes of any minor party candidate, has support from both parties. [Biden and Trump] “It's about the same,” Miringoff said.
What happened to Trump's conviction?
A majority of poll respondents (51%) said Trump, who recently faced a historic hush money conviction in New York, definitely or probably should go to prison. 47% said Trump definitely or probably should not go to prison.
What voters say about issues that matter to them
Of the six issues, the majority of respondents (30%) said inflation was their top priority when considering voting in a general election, followed by preserving democracy (29%) and immigration (18%).
Comparing Trump and Biden, most respondents said Trump is better on the economy and immigration, but Biden is better on preserving democracy and abortion.
The poll was conducted by the Marist Institute of Public Opinion among 1,311 adults from June 10 to 12. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
