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How do you run a debate between two men who, combined, make up two-thirds of the American population? The answer: no audience, mute the non-speaker, and have bathroom breaks (called commercials). It's a stretch to say next week's showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be decisive. But in a close election where each candidate's intellectual prowess is under scrutiny, it will matter.
Only three times in U.S. history can a presidential debate be said to have changed the outcome of an election. But in each case, the debate took place within weeks or days of the election. Biden argued for a historically early date because so many Americans are now mailing their votes. In reality, his team assumed the earliest opportunity to break the polling deadlock would have been resolved by now. The more Biden can dispel doubts about his age and remind people of Trump's character, the better. That's the theory.
The past carries mixed messages. The first televised debate was between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960. It boded well for Trump. People listening on the radio thought Nixon won. People watching on TV voted for Kennedy. The contrast between Nixon's so-called five-o'clock beard and JFK's youthful glow was key. Today, you'd watch it with the sound muted. By that standard, Trump looks livelier. Kennedy got 34.2 million votes. Nixon got 34.1 million.
The other two decisive debates both involved Jimmy Carter. In 1976, a month before the election, Carter tricked then-President Gerald Ford into denying Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, alienating Polish and Czech swing state voters in a close election in which the Electoral College margin of victory in Ohio and Wisconsin was down to a few thousand votes. George Gallup called it “the most defining moment of the campaign.” Actor Chevy Chase made a film about the gaffe. Saturday Night Live “I visited the Polish capital last year, and I'll say right from the get-go, Milwaukee is a beautiful city,” said Chase's Ford.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan's genial demeanor quelled suspicions that he was a Soviet-ready fanatic ready to pull the trigger. Carter and Reagan were neck and neck in the polls until a week before the election. All Reagan needed to do was appear sane. He won in a landslide victory. The second and third examples bode ill for Trump. He is unmatched in his ability to insult large groups of people. Past targets have included women, military personnel, and close relatives struggling with addiction or disability. Trump can be entertaining, but his personality is clearly not reassuring.
Judging by past performance, Biden should win against Trump. In both 2020 matchups, Biden was judged the winner. This is also because Trump made unpleasant impressions, especially about Biden's son Hunter's selfishness. People rejoiced when Biden said, “Would you please shut up?” Trump was headed for defeat anyway. He also lost to Hillary Clinton in 2016, both in content and predatory body language. Nevertheless, he won against Clinton. Former FBI Director James Comey could explain why.
But Democrats would be lying if they said they won't be nervous when Biden takes the podium next Thursday. The silence test is probably outdated. A better way would be TikToks and Instagram Reels, which many Americans will see. In March, Biden delivered an energetic State of the Union address. Millions saw only a 15-second video in which he mangled the names of murder victims. There was a big perception gap between Americans who saw that speech and those who saw the short video. Biden is sure to produce some clip-able Bidenisms next week.
Are these the impressions that will determine the future of American democracy? The sad answer is “maybe.” The good news for Biden is that the rules are largely in his favor. Trump thrives on live audiences and will have to adapt to the silence; he won't be heard while Biden is speaking. Biden would be remiss if he didn't remind viewers that his opponent is a convicted felon.
It's nice to think that policy clashes will determine the outcome of the debate. But more than usual, what each candidate says will matter less than what others think. Biden's goal will be to make sure his age doesn't become a bigger talking point than Trump's personality. On paper, his task is simple. In practice, it's not.
edward.luce@ft.com
