Amna Nawaz: With just a few months to go until Election Day, the race for the White House remains fierce.
Lisa Desjardins joins me now to take a look at the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist Poll.
Lisa, as you know, we're about a week away from the first presidential debate and about a month away from the first political convention.
What do the polls show so far?
Lisa Desjardins: First, a few words about the poll.
I know this isn’t everyone’s favorite topic.
And we at the NewsHour are not saying these numbers are conclusive.
You should not be seen in absolute terms.
These are meant to give context, and we like to give them context.
So, I'm going to do that tonight.
They tell us some important things.
First, the top-line numbers.
According to a Marist College poll conducted last week in collaboration with NPR and the “PBS NewsHour,” Where Are We?
–If the election were held today, it would be 49-49.
The margin of error here is 4.2 percentage points.
This is important because we want to add this context.
Let’s look at the number of responses to this same question over the past year or so and how this number has trended.
Look at this.
In reality, this is within the margin of error, meaning that this statistically close tie has continued for over a year, which is quite unusual.
Clearly, there is a partisan divide here.
Many Republicans support Trump, while many Democrats support Biden.
Independents remain a major question mark.
There is sometimes a gender divide among them, but otherwise voters are largely stationary.
Amna Nawaz: It is surprising that these figures have remained largely unchanged almost a year later.
Why are voters so tied down?
Lisa Desjardins: In short, they're unhappy, they're dissatisfied, they're on the verge of misery.
And we can see that in our polling.
We asked, are you happy with the two major party candidates?
— 42 percent of respondents said they were satisfied, while 55 percent said they were dissatisfied.
Now, if we look a little deeper into that data, we find that Republicans are generally more satisfied than Democrats.
But when we look at independents, 70% of them are not satisfied with either candidate on the ballot.
We are currently running a project to make phone calls to constituents who have expressed dissatisfaction.
We asked people for their responses in our newsletter and elsewhere.
So I've spent the day talking to voters across the country who feel this way.
I spoke with a Pennsylvania Republican and former Army colonel who told me he's frustrated.
He said, in his own words, he was upset.
I spoke with a mother in Wisconsin who said she was scared.
I spoke with a 24-year-old woman from North Carolina who was just starting out in political life.
She told me she was tired of me.
Amna Nawaz: So people are clearly disillusioned with the candidates.
What about issues?
Where do people stand on this issue now?
Lisa Desjardins: Yes.
This is the key question here.
This is the main focus of the campaign.
What works for voters?
What do they care about?
So, here's what we asked:
These were the top three issues revealed in our poll, with preserving democracy being the most important issue at 30 percent, inflation at 29 percent and immigration at 19 percent.
This means that the top two are essentially very close.
What does this mean?
Again, a layer of context.
Let's look at the numbers for February.
Even then, maintaining democracy was ranked first with 31 percent.
But I want to draw your attention specifically to the inflation figures we have here.
Look at that.
That's a big change.
While concerns about maintaining democracy have remained unchanged for some time, concerns about inflation have risen by a whopping six points.
That is beyond the margin of error.
So that shows that there is now growing concern about inflation.
So we ask a lot of questions about the economy and jobs.
But now I'm not at work.
We know the job market is booming.
That's inflation.
And we've said on the air that it's true, generally speaking, that inflation is falling in the United States right now.
The Fed remains concerned, but inflation rates are down significantly from the record highs of last year and the year before.
But voters still feel it.
They remain concerned about inflation in their area.
Amna Nawaz: It is interesting to see growing concerns even as inflation is gradually starting to subside.
Now, let’s talk about how these issues are specifically manifesting themselves in election campaigns.
We know that former President Trump was holding a rally in Wisconsin today.
Do you think these types of issues are reflected in the messages candidates are putting out on the campaign trail?
Lisa Desjardins: Yes, I love this idea.
Let’s take a look at the debates and the candidates based on what we know and what voters think.
So, as you mentioned today, the former president was in Racine, Wisconsin.
Remember, this is one of the key battleground states in this election, with 10 electoral votes at stake.
And, not surprisingly, he was talking about the economy there today.
DONALD TRUMP, former President of the United States (Republican), current US Presidential candidate: Biden's inflationary rise in prices and energy destruction are costing the average American family a staggering $28,000.
Think about that, $28,000.
And on day one of my new Administration, we're going to throw out Bidenomics and replace it with MAGAnomics, MAGAnomics.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE) LISA DESJARDINS: MAGAnomics.
It's all about economics, whatever kind of economics you want.
What's interesting here is that Biden says Bidenonomics has actually done much more for Wisconsin.
If you look closely, this is the very same area where President Trump promised thousands of jobs through Foxconn development during his presidency.
Its development has been poor indeed.
That never happened.
His promise was not fulfilled.
There were over 1,000 jobs flowing through there.
And indeed, the entire development was sold and is now being redeveloped by Microsoft, though Biden claims he helped make it happen.
So, just to remind you, President Biden had this to say about this when he visited Wisconsin in May: JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He literally came here with a gold shovel and Senator Ron Johnson and promised to build the Eighth Wonder of the World.
are you kidding me
(LAUGHTER) JOE BIDEN: Look what happened.
They dug a hole to put the gold shovel in and fell into it.
(LAUGHTER) LISA DESJARDINS: So this is about the economy. Normally we would look at this as a top priority, but Biden says, “I've done a better job for this state than former President Trump did.”
Looking at the details, Biden says he will create about 4,300 full-time and temporary jobs.
Amuna, Wisconsin, itself is breaking records for job growth.
Inflation is actually way down.
In the Midwest, it's around 1.2 to 2.7 percent.
So this is a region that is doing well on all economic indicators.
But even as you talk to Wisconsin voters today, they're feeling the pinch when it comes to housing, and when you look at their grocery bags, they're probably comparing it to four years ago.
While it's better than last year, they still consider it outside of their budget.
AMNNA NAWAZ: Lisa Desjardins talks about the current state of the race for the White House.
Thank you, Lisa.
Lisa Desjardins: You're welcome.