Unlike a parliamentary system in which an election can be called at any time if the ruling party receives a majority of the votes, the American system requires elections to be held every four years on the “Tuesday following the first Monday in November.” This year, it falls on November 5th.
This year's Democratic candidate is Joe Biden, who last time promised not to seek a second term because of his age, but everyone understands the value of campaign promises.
On the Republican side, “successor presumptive” Donald Trump has yet to announce his running mate. Trump said he knows who he will be, but will keep it a secret until the Republican National Convention in August.
Trump, a master of publicity, has a strategy so valuable that it is being discussed as far away as the UK… Conservative weekly magazine The Spectator (May 18, 2024, page 13).
Recently, things have changed. Trump's conviction in the “hush money” trial means some restrictions. He can no longer vote, but believe it or not, he can still run for president. In fact, there is precedent: Socialist presidential candidate Eugene Debs, who was jailed on sedition charges for openly opposing the draft in World War I, won 3.4 percent of the popular vote.
While some countries may not allow convicted criminals into the country, it is likely that relevant government agencies will grant exemptions to the rules in Trump's case, especially if elected.
Taking on Joe Biden might be like taking on a red herring, but he's an inspiring and experienced campaigner, and Trump's candidacy would certainly add to the excitement in the election.
Trump hates to lose and is ready for revenge, which means he is likely to throw his own money at the presidential election, and Hunter Biden and his legal troubles certainly won't help his case.
Current polls show Trump leading Biden by just 2 points. Granted, Biden is the president and it was expected that he would have a comfortable lead.
The Ladbrokes betting odds are also in Trump's favour – he's already a 7-4 favourite to Joe Biden's 2-1 – but the incumbent's future doesn't look bright right now – and of course he wields huge influence over world affairs, not to mention the US economy.
It will be interesting to see how the Democratic and Republican conventions can boost their respective candidates, and of course a world crisis or two, even if self-inflicted, would certainly help boost support.
