(NewsNation) — A prominent presidential election prognosticator says a lot of bad things would have to happen for Biden to lose.
Alan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, joined NewsNation's Chris Cuomo on Wednesday to discuss his predictions for the 2024 election.
Lightman pointed out that his method for predicting presidential elections uses 13 “keys” premised on the idea that “American elections are essentially votes for or against the strength and performance of the party in the White House.” Lightman said the key is “governance” and “not campaigning.”
Lichtman developed the formula in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Kaylis-Vorok, who has a track record of accurately predicting the winner of presidential elections since the mid-1980s.
He has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections. He predicted Biden would defeat Trump in the 2020 election, and said in an interview with The Guardian that the COVID-19 pandemic “brought him down.”
Professor Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House
- Party Mission
- Party Contest
- Term of office
- third party
- Short-term economics
- Long-term economy
- Policy Changes
- Social anxiety
- scandal
- Foreign Policy
- Incumbent Charisma
- Charisma of the challenger
Lichtman said he advises voters to remember that “polls are snapshots.”
“They are being misused as forecasters and the experts have no scientific basis or track record for their predictions.”
Lichtman said Biden “has lost two keys: party credibility and incumbent charisma,” but added that Biden “would need to lose four more keys” to lose.
