“Almighty God, I feel the heat rising. It's rising and rising and rising and rising and rising to my very soul.” — Elvis Presley
A Gallup poll found that in 2022, Americans' positive self-assessment of their mental health is at its lowest level in the past 20 years. Only 31% of adults rated their mental health or emotional well-being as “excellent,” a three percentage point worse rating over the past two decades. The situation for young Americans may be even worse: The average high school student today has the same anxiety levels as the average mentally ill person in the early 1950s, according to Psychology Today.
This current crisis seems linked to immediate threats posed by climate change, international conflict, the harmful effects of social media, fears about the future of democracy, real and imagined insecurity about the economy, concerns about the infringement of rights to gender and reproductive autonomy, and many other issues.
These concerns have been culminated in the upcoming presidential election, which many have speculated may be contributing to America's deepening mental health crisis. In March, Boston University's Matt Motta said that “people paying the most attention to the 2024 presidential election have a range of negative feelings about the election.” A national online poll conducted in February found that about one-third of Americans said the upcoming election would make them feel anxious, stressed, nervous, or angry all or most days of the month. Only 23% of respondents said they were happy or excited about the election.
We also found that younger respondents (Generation Z and Millennials) were significantly less likely to follow political news than Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation, so while they were less anxious about the presidential election, this doesn’t reflect other anxieties they may have been feeling.
Not following political news is also highly correlated with an individual's intent to vote, with Baby Boomers and Silent Generations reporting roughly 20% more intent to vote than Gen Z and Millennials.
A March poll by The Associated Press-NORC Public Policy Center found that more than 60% of Americans lacked confidence in President Biden's “mental ability to effectively serve as president,” but his State of the Union address and first-term performance appear to have eased some of those concerns. A similar, but slightly smaller, share of survey respondents (57%) said former President Trump “lacks the memory and insight to carry out the job.” Currently, the long-term impact of Donald Trump's conviction in a New York court in May on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records is unclear.
In January, a team of researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst led by Tatishé Ntheta conducted a new poll of potential 2024 presidential voters. In the report, titled “Hope and Fear: Americans' Sentiments About the 2024 Presidential Election,” the authors made several key takeaways: Nearly half of Americans would prefer that both Biden and Trump not run for president again, and most of them believe a rematch between Biden and Trump would be bad for the country.
The most common emotion expressed over a Biden or Trump victory was disappointment, followed by fear, with a significant number of potential voters believing that either candidate's victory would threaten American democracy. In the survey, respondents also expressed significant concern about the possibility of violence in the 2024 election. Finally, because unpleasant emotions tend to motivate people to take action, voter interest and turnout were both predicted to be higher.
Despite the negativity surrounding the rematch, supporters of both candidates expressed hope for the 2024 presidential election. Biden supporters believe a Democratic victory would “guarantee government competency and contribute to progressive wins in areas like abortion access, student loan forgiveness, and climate change policy,” while Trump supporters believe a Republican victory would lead to “tougher immigration policies, lower taxes, and an improved economy.”
The American Psychiatric Association conducted its annual poll in April, reporting that 73% of U.S. adults are “anxious” about the 2024 election. “Just thinking about the rhetoric, the news inundation, the words that are being used, you have to consider that this is new territory we're in,” says Vinita Mehta, a clinical psychologist in Washington, D.C. “It's very hard to deal with when you don't really know what's going to happen.”
APA President Petros Levounis said some anxiety is to be expected, but the rate is clearly increasing significantly. He attributes the increase at least in part to “unprecedented exposure to everything that's going on around us.” “We're talking about it on our phones, on social media, on TV, so there's no escaping this,” Mehta said.
Finally, both parties have an obligation to try to make their members nervous about the possible outcome of the election; they don't want voters to let their guard down and become discouraged from voting. They can also use these provocations to boost fundraising efforts, but this can be a delicate process: they want to create the appearance of success in their fundraising efforts, triggering a “bandwagon effect” that gets everyone on board, but they don't want to be so successful that people think they don't need to donate.
My wife, Diane, and I have felt the tension of this year's campaign and I think we've made more small political contributions this year than ever before. Not a lot, but at least we feel like we're doing something.
