Joe Biden and Donald Trump face off in a historic US presidential debate this week, watched by millions of voters, setting the stage for what could be a pivotal moment in the 2024 presidential election.
The showdown marked the start of what is expected to be a bitter campaign summer in a deeply polarized and tense United States still reeling from the chaos and violence that followed the 2020 election.
Thursday's key showdown takes on even more significance with only two debates this season, with both candidates stepping up personal attacks and national polls showing the two candidates neck and neck.
“This debate is important because it's an opportunity for two well-known candidates to reintroduce themselves to a public that is familiar with them but not paying attention,” said Donald Nieman, a political analyst and history professor at Binghamton University in New York.
“The big question is how much attention the general public, outside of political fans, will pay to these early debates.”
For Trump, the 90-minute showdown is a chance to highlight his concerns about the mental health of the 81-year-old Biden, even though the 78-year-old Republican has faced concerns about his own age.
For Biden, the first debate between a sitting president and a former president will be an opportunity to highlight the legal challenges plaguing Trump and show he is unfit for the presidency.
The president will also be desperate at this stage to avoid any major gaffes that could cost him the November election.
– “A fierce accusation full of insults” –
The arguments come after a criminal trial that has been Trump's focus for months, with him scheduled to be sentenced on July 11 on 34 counts of falsifying business records.
Both candidates eschewed the bipartisan commission that has run the debates since 1988, instead deciding in an unusually early move to stage their first showdown on CNN, first on Sept. 10 and then on ABC.
Abortion, the state of American democracy and foreign conflicts are all concerns for voters, but inflation and border security are likely to be the biggest issues.
Their final debate in 2020 was tense, with Trump repeatedly interrupting Biden, who at one point yelled, “Will you just shut up?”
This time, the moderators are taking even more steps than usual to maintain civility, with all microphones muted except for those of the candidates who are speaking.
“Trump is famously indisciplined and is likely to become frustrated by his lack of control over the event, interrupting his opponent and dragging it out with lengthy, insult-filled speeches,” said Nicholas Creel, a political scientist at Georgia State University.
“Biden also hopes the debate will remind Americans of the chaos of the Trump presidency, so it's very likely that Trump will fail to play by the rules and perform poorly as a result.”
– More “presidential”?
But the debate will be as much about short social media quips as it is about policy wrangling, and both candidates will be looking to go viral.
“Based on the campaign, the answer is probably no, but it will be interesting to see whether former President Trump tries to be more 'presidential' in any way,” said Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University.
The Biden campaign released an ad last week attacking Trump over his criminal conviction as Trump headed to his mountainside retreat at Camp David to develop attack lines and counterarguments.
Trump, who is not fond of detailed policy discussions, met with aides and running mate at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, but the focus was on tone and broad strokes rather than details.
Neiman, the Binghamton analyst, said Trump would benefit from sticking to the script, highlighting Biden's weaknesses on inflation and immigration and refraining from making bombastic statements.
“It will disappoint his base, but it will go a long way in winning over university-educated women in the suburbs,” he told AFP.
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