All eyes are on President Biden and former President Donald Trump this week as they prepare to face off in their first debate of the 2024 presidential election on Thursday. It will be the first time in U.S. history that a sitting presidential candidate and a former president will face off on the debate stage.
The highly anticipated June 27 debate between Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, has new rules agreed to by both sides, including no spectators and candidates having their microphones muted when they are not speaking.
For voters, it's a chance to see two presidents confront a divided nation in their own uniquely vulnerable way, without the added effect of applause or booing.
For candidates, this is an opportunity to gain the trust of the American public and garner support from the 10% of registered voters (according to a recent Yahoo/YouGov poll) who are either undecided (6%) or don't plan to vote at all (4%) in the Nov. 5 general election, political and debate strategists told Yahoo News.
Here's a look at what each candidate needs to do on Thursday to make the debate a success.
The need to “frame race”
Brett O'Donnell, a Republican strategist who supported former presidential candidate Mitt Romney during his 2012 GOP primary debate with President Barack Obama, said Biden and Trump need to make a stronger case than ever for why they deserve to return to the White House.
“The stakes in this debate are extremely high,” O'Donnell told Yahoo News. “At this point in the campaign, voters have both candidates framing their campaigns and why They should be the next president of the United States.”
Biden, the oldest candidate ever to compete in a presidential election, and Trump have opposing views on key issues such as immigration, abortion and the Gaza war.
So Biden will reportedly seek to highlight his team's accomplishments while drawing a sharp contrast between him “fighting for the American people” and Trump “taking to the stage as a convicted felon,” campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said in a memo obtained by NBC News.
Meanwhile, CNN reports that Trump is focusing more on rhetoric “than policy.”
Still, the former president gathered a group of policy experts and allies to clarify his messaging on the economy, immigration, the Jan. 6 attack and his promise of amnesty for rioters, according to The New York Times.
What Biden should do
Jennifer Talbert, director of Ohio University's debate program, said Biden will need to demonstrate a strong “mental acuity” reminiscent of his impassioned State of the Union address in March to counter Trump's claims that he is mentally unfit to lead.
“Viewers will have the opportunity to watch President Biden answer tough questions and decide for themselves whether he has the mental fortitude to continue as president,” Talbert said.
In a memo to reporters, Tyler said the president would seek to highlight what issues would be at stake if Trump were elected. Specifically, Biden will likely try to highlight the issues Trump sees as “the biggest threat,” such as Supreme Court appointments that helped overturn Trump's election victory. Roe v. Wade According to CNN, Biden will aim to contrast Trump's record in 2022 by touting his own accomplishments, from job creation to COVID-19 relief and student loan relief.
O'Donnell also stressed the need for the president to avoid confrontation and stay focused on the essentials.
“There is absolutely no love between these two candidates and it will be very interesting to see how much they go at each other,” he said.[But] Both sides need to make this debate about voters, not about each other. The person who can best connect with national audiences and convince them he or she has a plan to solve the big challenges facing them will ultimately be the winner.”
What Trump should do
Talbert said the advice to avoid aggressive postures also applies to Trump, and Thursday's debate is a chance for Trump to make the case that America has become more expensive under Biden and that things were better during his time in office.
If Trump could control his outbursts, she explained, his message could resonate more deeply with his audience. During the first presidential debate in 2020, Trump repeatedly interrupted Biden, who later admitted it was a mistake.
To do that, Talbert said, Trump needs to convince viewers that he is knowledgeable about the issues and will answer the questions accurately.
“Trump sometimes loosens his facts,” she said, “and viewers should watch the post-debate commentary to determine whether Trump is telling the truth.”
This is especially true when it comes to the economy, which both parties have been accused of misrepresenting.
“Many Americans are being economically impacted by the current economic situation, including rising food prices, energy and fuel costs,” Talbert said. “Candidates should focus on their constituents rather than on vitriol.”
Despite Trump's 34-count conviction in a hush-money case last month, sources at The New York Times said Trump is focused on how to answer debate questions about the January 6 riot. Trump, who often refers to the rioters as “hostages,” has promised to pardon them. Trump has reportedly told aides he will do so on a case-by-case basis.
Ahead of Thursday, Trump and his surrogates have offered unusual praise for their opponent's abilities, a possible sign that they are trying to set high expectations for Biden's performance.
“I was never a fan of his, but he certainly beat Paul Ryan. Years and years ago, he beat Paul Ryan in a big way,” Trump said on the All In podcast last Thursday, referring to the 2012 vice presidential debate between Biden and the former Republican House speaker.
“I think he'd be a valuable debater. I don't want to underestimate him,” Trump added.
How impactful does the debate actually have?
Not as much as you might think: Scientific American reports that separate studies conducted in 2019 and 2012 found no significant change in the way voters viewed the candidates before and after watching a debate.
The authors of the 2019 study suggest that what voters see in the debates is less likely to influence their decisions than what they see from the media, political activists, and other citizens.
The 2024 presidential election is likely to be a close one. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted June 3-6 showed Biden (46%) narrowly leading Trump (44%) among registered voters. The Biden campaign has pushed for an early debate in hopes of giving the president new momentum.
In an election this close, one thing is clear: every vote counts.
