I've changed my mind. This week's presidential debate is important.
Before I continue, a quick recap: Last month, I stated my long-held view that presidential debates are not very meaningful and are quite stupid. They are pseudo-events, a term historian Daniel J. Boorstin uses to describe media-created spectacles that become important because we give them meaning.
My opinion remains the same as a historical matter: Even debate aficionados admit that John F. Kennedy won the first presidential debate in 1960 because he looked good on TV and Richard Nixon looked like he'd woken up drunk in a motel room. In other words, debates have always been about style over substance.
And even the style doesn't really matter: Researchers have found that debates have a virtually undetectable effect on elections.
So why did I change my mind about this debate? First of all, because in a “vibe” election, the vibe debate could be important.
We've all heard that a large percentage of voters (around 20%) are so-called double haters, people who really don't want to vote for either Trump or Biden. Perhaps more importantly, until just a few months ago, an even larger number of voters didn't think they would have to choose between Trump and Biden: In March, an Economist/YouGov poll found that only 33% thought a rematch between Trump and Biden would “definitely” happen.
That's one reason the Biden team wanted to hold the debate in June — three months earlier than any other such event on record. They need their “persuadable” voters to stop wallowing in the folly of denial and acknowledge that this is an option and go home. That alone makes this debate different.
Debates usually have one or two functions: Sometimes they are a last-ditch effort to convince voters of their choice, and sometimes they are an attempt to introduce or reintroduce the candidates to voters who weren't paying attention after Labor Day.
But the debate is first and foremost an effort to help voters understand what their choice is. These candidates — a sitting president with half a century of political experience and a former president and reality TV personality — don't need to be reintroduced to voters, but they do need to be reassured about them.
That's why the debates, which tend to emphasize style over substance, may be even more important this time around. Great debate moments sometimes emerge from off-the-cuff one-liners, but more often involve gaffes, body language, sighs and other unintended elements. The takeaway from a presidential debate is often not a policy position or plan, but rather a sense of relief at the idea that a person will continue to stand before us for another four years.
This is a pretty stupid criterion for choosing a president, but these are stupid times. When a candidate's biggest challenge is persuading voters who have deep doubts about their intellectual acuity and character, comfort may be everything.
That’s why the stakes are high for Biden in this debate. While it was certainly foolish for Trump to set the bar so low by calling his opponent a “brain-dead zombie,” I think the conventional pundits on the expectations game are overstated. Regardless of Trump’s rhetoric, millions of people—undecided Democrats, independents, and especially those who are doubly averse—have legitimate and genuine concerns about Biden’s mental and physical health. I don’t think a debate is a good test of presidential fitness, but for many voters, this debate may be the definitive test of Biden’s mental health.
Even progressives like CNN political analyst Van Jones acknowledge that if the president really botches this debate, it will be “game over” for him. I think that's true. Fair or not, if Biden suffers a major breakdown, it will irreparably confirm voters' concerns about his age. I expect the whispers of nominating someone to replace him on the shortlist will turn into cries almost overnight.
But if Biden clears that very low bar, the risks for Trump rise dramatically. Most voters don't like the former president, and never have liked him very much. If he leans into the traits they dislike — if he follows the old advice to “be yourself” and gives them some sense of security — double-dealers and other undecideds could easily switch to the president. Not everyone, of course, but Biden doesn't need everyone.
In boxing terms, Biden is more likely to lose by knockout, and more likely to win by split decision.
