CNN
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Thursday night's showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in Atlanta is likely to be the most fateful presidential debate in U.S. history.
For the first time, a sitting president and a former president will face off in front of millions of viewers and in a showdown that takes place much earlier than usual, before the party convention. The CNN-hosted showdown is the most crucial moment yet in the closely fought race and a chance for Biden to reverse his threatened reelection defeat as he struggles to convince voters that he has delivered on his 2020 promise of political and economic normalcy.
The significance of this debate can only be fully understood against the backdrop of the unprecedented politics of our times. Since Senator John F. Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon held the first televised debate in 1960, there have been bitter, close elections that have steered the country in vastly different directions. But Trump's attempts to disrupt a peaceful transition of power based on his false claims of fraud in the 2020 election and his promises of an unprecedented personal vendetta against the president if he wins in November make the 2024 election more important than ever.
Had Sen. John Kerry defeated President George W. Bush in 2004, or former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney presided over Barack Obama's one-term presidency in 2012, there would have been significant political changes. But the character of the republic and its international situation would not have fundamentally changed. That certainty cannot be applied with confidence to this election. Trump's authoritarian impulses, as epitomized by his assertion before the Supreme Court that the president has nearly unlimited power and his hardline new policy blueprint on immigration, the economy and foreign policy, could make a second term deeply disruptive.
“This is an incredibly historic event. You can't overstate the importance of this,” presidential historian Douglas Brinkley told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday.
Democrats are eager for the 81-year-old Biden to show energy and acumen amid concerns about his age. Trump, 78, may have a biggest weakness in himself, delivering a performance that backs up Biden's warning that he is “too crazy” to be president.
Biden is expected to attack Trump on abortion (one of the few policy areas where Biden has a higher approval rating than his predecessor) and on his praise of foreign dictators. Trump has already signaled he plans to portray Biden's America as a dystopia plagued by out-of-control immigration, rampant crime and searing economic pain. What's most unusual about the debate is that it comes less than a month after Trump was convicted in New York in a criminal case involving hush money. Biden has already highlighted the conviction on the campaign trail, while Trump has maintained he is the victim of an attempt to weaponize the justice system to interfere in the election.
Both candidates face extreme pressure.
Both men will want to avoid debate-day gaffes or odd personal quirks that often go viral, dominate critical post-debate media coverage and help solidify winners and losers in voters' minds. Vice President Al Gore's theatrical sigh in 2000 and President George H.W. Bush's thoughtless glance at his watch in 1992 both became symbols of losing campaigns. The risks are much higher now, thanks to social media.
Presidential debates won't necessarily determine a winner in November, but the tension is palpable around the first one this year, taking place in June instead of the usual September or October.
“The closer to the election, the more likely the debates are to affect the election,” said Aaron Cole, a debate director at the University of Michigan who has studied presidential debates extensively. “These mistakes often reaffirm caricatures of the candidates that existed before the debates even took place.” For Biden, that meant no senior moment, and Trump would be well-advised to avoid comments that support the image of Biden as the “next dictator.”
Neither Trump nor Biden have debated since their last showdown in the pandemic-torn 2020 campaign, and their preparations for one of the most important nights of their lives are a reflection of their personalities and political personas.
The president retreated for days, gathering with advisers beneath the oaks, poplars and maples of his Camp David estate to strategize how to handle the toughest debate opponent in history. Fueled by lasagna and tacos, they participated in mock debates, pored over briefing binders and tried to anticipate Trump's quirks and shifts. It was a debate camp that fit Biden's view of himself as embroiled in an existential race for the soul of the nation.
The former president dislikes mock debates, instead honing his preparation at rallies and events, trusting his instincts, intuition and a keen sense for his opponents' political weaknesses, but he has held policy review sessions with aides and running mates, including Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio and Marco Rubio of Florida.
Biden is taking more risks on himself in the run-up to the debate than any modern president, calling Trump a “broken” criminal who is too dangerous and reckless to return to the White House. He also criticized Trump for using Nazi-like language and warned that the vote is about democracy, freedom and the ability of “we the people” to decide America's fate.
Biden's debate team is led by former White House chief of staff Ron Klain, who has been preparing Democrats for presidential debates for a generation. One of Klain's mottos is “You can lose a debate at any time, but you can only win the first 30 minutes.” So Biden is expected to include his most important talking points early on to appeal to what he thinks will be the most viewership portion of a primetime event.
Biden's team is sifting through Trump's recent public interviews and speeches, preparing responses to any question he or the moderator might throw at him. Biden is ready to handle whatever Trump presents himself, whether it's the bombastic opponent who interrupted and insulted him in their first 2020 matchup, or the more subdued challenger who seeks to project stability. If Trump aims to be presidential, Biden has a trove of rehearsed attacks and rebuttals to provoke him into making explosive statements that will pique voters' interest.
Biden's advisers told CNN that preparations for the debate included preparing the president to respond if Trump made any personal attacks. This came just weeks after Biden's son, Hunter, was convicted on a felony gun charge. Biden's love and protectiveness for his family has always been on full display, and he was infuriated when the then-president mentioned Hunter during the first 2020 debate.
Mr. Biden has been practicing in a large hangar at his Maryland vacation home, which includes a mock debate stage equipped with bright TV lights, with Mr. Biden's personal lawyer, Bob Bauer, playing Mr. Trump, and other aides on hand as CNN hosts Dana Bash and Jake Tapper.
But CNN sources say the debate practice isn't just for fun — it's also to answer questions about his age. The president's aides and allies frequently point to his State of the Union address in March as an example of Biden at his best, arguing that he was energetic, focused and agile during the 67-minute primetime address.
Incumbent presidents are often shocked when they first appear in a presidential debate because they're not used to having someone argue with them. But Trump's refusal to debate his Republican primary rivals this year may erode his advantage here. Still, his aggressive debating style isn't all that different from the combative, abrasive demeanor he displays in most of his public appearances.
Trump has primed for the debate by suggesting Biden gets “high” on drugs. Aides have tried desperately to shatter the trap of expectations he has created, suggesting Biden is so mentally frail he can barely stand up or finish sentences. In any other era, it would be unthinkable for a candidate to accuse his opponent of doping. But Trump's tactics are reminiscent of a presidency and a style of politics that shattered all previous norms.
In a new memo issued Wednesday, the Trump campaign suggested the former president would attack Biden on immigration and the economy. The campaign boasted that polling averages that the Trump campaign says give the former president an advantage in every key state.
And now Trump, who has run an administration that spews lies on a daily basis, has tried to accuse Biden of the transgression most associated with him: lying. “He is a walking lying machine and a fact-checker's dream,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, accusing Biden, one of the best golfers in the presidential race, of not being able to hit the ball 10 yards.
Trump's unconventional approach could evoke all the chaos, discord and discord the country endured during his four years in office — and that his supporters love and want to restore.
But it also risks running counter to Biden's desire to help voters understand the difference between the 45th and 46th presidents he believes will deliver an electoral victory.
Terry Spratt, a speechwriter for former President Barack Obama, said a successful debate would convey a coherent picture of where the country is and where it's going.
“This is your story, why you're the right candidate, why the other candidate is the wrong candidate. And this is the story of the future. Every election is about the future. This is a choice about the future,” Spratt told CNN's Casey Hunt.
Neither Trump nor Biden have achieved that goal so far, and Thursday is their best chance to do so.
