Biden has time to recover. This is the earliest election in history, and there are more than four months until the election, which is an eternity in the world of normal politics. Things can turn around. Time is not an issue. But this is not just a matter of changing campaign tactics or creating clever new ads. His advisers can help and offer ideas. But this rests mostly on Biden's shoulders.
Can he manage the task? Can he convince enough voters? Perhaps we should forget what we witnessed Thursday night and look at Trump with fresh eyes, reassessing whether he has the physical and mental stamina to serve another four years, overcome the damage he has done to his candidacy and the impact he has had on Democrats nervous about the possibility of former President Donald Trump returning to the White House. Can he make Trump as much of a problem as he is himself?
It's not that Trump had a great night. On the contrary, he tried to tell voters that things were better when he was president, but his performance was the same as the outgoing Trump in 2020. The country has been seeing that, perhaps even exaggerated versions, for almost nine years.
The former president lied throughout the night, spewing one statement after another with little or no basis in fact. He responded in bravado to pointed questions about the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol. He also refused to say explicitly that he would accept the results of the election if he lost.
That may not matter, given the damage Biden inflicted on himself. The president won many of the substantive exchanges. His performance stabilized as the debate went on. But first impressions matter, and for Biden, they were worse than many Democrats feared. And while his performance improved as the night went on, there were enough stumbles, pauses, fumblings and blank stares throughout the debate that a first impression might have been lingering.
It's well-known that the two men dislike each other, but as the debate went on, their exchanges became increasingly nasty and personal. For many watching on Thursday, the 90 minutes was a reminder of why so many people are so unhappy with the choices they have available to them. But unless something changes, these are the choices they have.
Minutes into the debate, the alarm among Democratic Party insiders was palpable. Panic-stricken text messages flew in waves, flying everywhere. It was painful to watch, and some Democrats wanted to look away. The same questions that had been asked for months but had faded into the background resurfaced with new urgency: Will Biden step aside before the convention? Will some Democrats go around urging him to drop out of the race? If so, who will it be? Will his replacement be named at the August convention? Who could be a better candidate?
None of it is certain. Biden is proud and stubborn. And as the only person who has ever beaten Trump, he believes he is best placed to do so. To some Democrats, Biden's decision to seek a second term after saying in 2020 that he would build a bridge to a new generation is seen by many as selfish, putting his own interests above the needs of his party and putting the future of the Republican Party at risk in the face of Trump's challenge.
But that puts Democrats in a precarious position: Barring a reversal, Thursday's debate could make it even less likely that Biden will win an Electoral College majority. Biden is already in a tough spot. If the debate over his successor drags on, Biden's ratings will fall further. Opening up the convention to the public will only lead to further confusion within the party. After the debate, one Democrat said, “Biden will need to act aggressively in the next 24 hours to stave off panic.”
Before the debate, Trump had a slight lead in the race. National polls predicted a fairly even contest, in contrast to four years ago, when Biden led throughout the campaign. Trump's position looked even stronger in the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College. While Trump's lead is within the margin of error in some cases, it shows the very narrow path Biden must follow to win.
Democratic and Republican strategists will be eager to see how the first round of post-debate polls turn out. Historically, debates can shift the balance of the candidates somewhat, but the shifts are generally short-lived. Biden's drop in approval ratings will only intensify many Democrats' reservations about making him the nominee.
Vice President Harris tried to do some damage control in a cable TV interview after the debate. She highlighted the contrasting policy platforms of the two candidates and emphasized the threat Trump poses to the country. She detailed her administration's record, as Biden tried to do in the debate. She focused on abortion rights, which has been the biggest election issue for Democrats over the past two years.
Harris can soften the blow. She can convince panicked Democrats to step back and look at the bigger picture. She can remind voters of what's coming in November and what Trump represents. But she can't save Biden. Only she can save Biden himself.
There is hope within the campaign that the reality of what happened will allow the president to recast the election as a choice rather than a referendum. In this view, Biden's positions on many issues are more popular than Trump's, Biden won the debate on substance, and many voters still balk at the prospect of a second term for Trump regardless of how they rated his performance in the presidential debates. But in the cutthroat world of presidential elections, substance may not trump perceptions of style or fitness.
One worry among Democrats is that voters disillusioned with the options will simply avoid the polls and vote for third-party candidates, something that could hurt Biden more than Trump. Even before the debate, there was some evidence that voters who might naturally support the Democratic candidate were cold toward the president and looking for an escape route. Biden cannot afford to let that escalate.
David Plouffe, who served as Barack Obama's 2008 campaign chairman and later became a senior White House adviser, called the debate “the most important 90 minutes of the campaign and a huge missed opportunity for Biden.”
That was a polite way of putting it. Speaking on MSNBC, Plauch also laid out two scenarios for the campaign and the party: One, Biden resigns, which Plauch doesn't think will happen. The second, is that Biden is somehow able to “right the ship.”
He offered a different take on the two candidates in the debate: “They're three years apart in age,” he said. “Tonight they looked like they were 30 years apart.”
The president's age has been his biggest weakness throughout the campaign. Trump is 78 and Biden is 81, but polls show that many Americans believe Biden is too old and mentally not ready to serve another four years in office. They don't feel the same about Trump. Democrats who like and respect Biden are While they share concerns about his fitness, most would support him as an alternative to President Trump in November's presidential election.
Obama performed badly in the first debate in 2012, but didn't realize it when he walked off the stage. Advisers told him otherwise and urged him to watch the debate tape. Only then did he realize how badly he'd performed. “I get it,” he told one adviser. Obama's terrible performance then wasn't as existentially threatening as Biden's was on Thursday night. Still, will Biden admit as much in the coming days?
The second and only scheduled debate will be on September 10th, hosted by ABC News. In the meantime, the Republicans will hold their conventions in Milwaukee in July and the Democrats in Chicago in August. Trump is convicted and sentenced in a New York case involving hush money and false business records. The Supreme Court will soon rule on Trump's immunity from prosecution. So big things are in store.
Would Biden want another debate? If Biden wanted one, would Trump agree? Would another debate be too big a gamble for the president, or a lifeline he could grab just as early voting begins? These decisions lie in the future. For now, all eyes are on the president.
