Iran's presidential election was hit by a record low voter turnout, with no candidate receiving half the vote, and headed into a second round on Saturday.
The runoff election will present voters with a tough choice between reformers who promise better ties with the West and easing social restrictions, and hardliners who want to strengthen the conservative power base.
Of the more than 24 million votes counted, reformist and former health minister Massoud Pezeshkian won 42 percent of the vote, while the most ideologically staunch pro-government Saeed Jalili of the three conservative candidates got 38 percent, according to the interior ministry.
But the low turnout – just 40 percent – will be a focal point of political debate ahead of Friday's second round of voting, with the absence of voters likely to be a rebuke from both reformists and hardliners within the Islamic Republic.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Friday that high voter turnout was “absolutely essential” and that Iran's “permanence, stability, honor and dignity in the world” depended on the people's vote.
The election comes at a crucial time for the regime, with tensions with the West rising due to the Israel-Hamas war and Iran's expanding nuclear program. The republic is also preparing to choose a successor to the 85-year-old Khamenei if he dies.
The emergency vote was called following the death of hardline President Ebrahim Raisi, a Muslim cleric and potential successor to Khamenei, in a helicopter crash last month.
Reformist politicians have been emboldened by the authorities' surprise decision to allow Pezeshkian to run after the 2021 presidential election, which barred leading reformist and centrist candidates from running in this year's parliamentary elections.
But many voters who would have supported reformist candidates are frustrated by the country's poor economic performance, social restrictions and isolation from the West and are disillusioned with their leaders. They have given up on the idea that change can come from within the government and are unwilling to be seen as legitimizing a theocracy through the ballot box.
The mood was somber after the 2021 presidential election that brought Raisi to power, an outcome many believed was predetermined because leading reformist candidates were blocked from running. Turnout in that election was 48%, the lowest for a presidential election since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
The following year, large-scale anti-regime protests erupted after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody after being arrested for allegedly not wearing her hijab correctly. This year, a social media campaign has urged people not to vote, saying it would be a betrayal of those killed during the crackdown on protests.
As a result, in countries with young populations, not voting has become a form of silent protest against the regime.
“Iranian society has completely changed since 2022 [since the Amini protests]”Both theoretical frameworks and traditional polling methods are inadequate to understand this new society,” sociologist Mohammad Reza Javadi Yeganeh said in a post on X.
Reformist politicians will be clinging to the hope that a runoff between Pezeshkian and Jalili will mobilize more Iranians to vote.
Pezechkian, 69, has pledged to resolve Iran's nuclear standoff with the West and resume talks with the United States to secure sanctions relief, while also signalling he would ease social restrictions, such as softening his stance on women's compulsory wearing of the hijab.
But the 58-year-old Jalili believes his chances of victory are improved by being the only hardline candidate, and he hopes he can rally his conservative base around him.
Typically, hard-line candidates drop out of the race just before the vote to rally support for the front-runner, but this time neither Jalili nor another hard-line candidate, Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf, who came in third, were willing to back down despite pressure from within their camps, splitting the conservative vote.
If Jalili wins, analysts have warned he would enforce social restrictions more strictly and be more hostile to any engagement with the United States and other Western countries.
While Pezeshkian and Ghalibaf suggested they were open to negotiations with Western countries, Jalili told his supporters that they would “use our existing economic potential to make our enemies regret imposing sanctions.” [on Iran]”.
While important foreign policy and domestic decisions are determined by the supreme leader, the president can influence the government's stance within the republic and in external relations.
But the challenge for Pezeshkian will be to convince a wary Iranian public that he can effect change in a system in which the supreme leader holds supreme power and a core of elected and unelected hardline powers, including the elite Revolutionary Guards, wield great influence over foreign and domestic policy.
“I don’t see any reason to vote,” said Saba, a 22-year-old student. “No one can change the situation. [the president] It's just one small part of a larger circle, and no one can change it.”
