Last Thursday US Presidential Debates – Con man and former US President Donald Trump and the elderly Current US President Joe Biden I could not help but recall the famous observation that democracy is the worst form of government apart from all others.
This was alarming not only to American voters but to everyone around the world who cares about the health of the political system we live in. Americans are proud of their democracy, but what we are witnessing is that the most important democracy in the world is falling under the seductive spell of a new American emperor, and what impact this will have on both the US and global economies remains to be seen.
On top of these serious concerns, there are suddenly two Democratic elections this week. England and France This raises further questions about the capacity of democratic institutions to govern well during difficult times and when tough decisions must be made. Angry and disgruntled voters can protest by ousting the current government, but they do so without confidence that the new government will govern better.
Democratic elections provide choice but do not guarantee competence, and with the power of social media, it may seem like we are overly reliant on it. About the Theatre than stable ability.
US Vice President Kamala Harris said Biden would not be presenting in a 90-minute performance. Three years of good performanceBut she was speaking into a void. As a Financial Times editorial pointed out, “The debates could decide the outcome of the election, and this one may be remembered as the moment when hope was lost, like Richard Nixon's sweaty battle with John F. Kennedy in 1960.”
As Martin Wolf, a normally moderate, put it in the Financial Times, “Biden may be old, but Trump is crazy. And the sad thing is, he's not amusingly crazy, he's dangerously crazy.” He has no clear moral code, Loyalty to oneself First and foremost, before country.
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US presidential debate: Biden and Trump spar over economy and Ukraine war
US presidential debate: Biden and Trump spar over economy and Ukraine war
Trump has begun to dismantle the checks and balances that characterize the U.S. Constitution, especially its independence and respect. Independent Judiciary. He also Threatening to take revenge To those who have challenged him since his defeat in the 2020 election.
Wolf is also looking at Trump's policy menu, many of which are published by the Heritage Foundation. Project 2025This may please his billionaire backers, but according to Moody's Analytics, they will cause a recession in the US in 2025.
President Trump's fantastical economic plan includes more than just raising tariffs. Against China It would replace the income tax. Last week, economists at the Washington-based Peterson Institute exposed the naivety of this idea: “The tariffs would be levied on a combined total of $3.1 trillion in imports in 2023. The income tax would be levied on more than $20 trillion in income…It is literally impossible for the tariffs to completely replace the income tax.”
The Peterson Institute's warning was clear: “If this policy is implemented, antagonizing U.S. allies and partners“It could provoke a global trade war, undermine global economic prosperity, and undermine national security. It could also destabilize the global financial system.”
Those hoping that the presidential debates would demonstrate the fundamental merits of the democratic political process instead Lies are not checked And the gruff attacks on political transgressions have all the hallmarks of a dictator. I'm reminded of Bill Clinton's astute comment in 2002 that “when people feel insecure, they prefer someone strong and wrong to someone weak and right.”
Democracy comes in many forms, and parts of American democracy are already perversely undemocratic. American campaign finance rules are already damaging to democratic principles.
When billionaires like Timothy Mellon choose to donate $50 million Donald Trump's election campaignThey do so with the confidence that they are buying $50 million worth of influence and access: They are investing in insurance for policies that will reduce inequality and benefit families stuck in the bottom half of the U.S. income distribution.
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The US Electoral College: How does it work and why does it exist?
The US Electoral College: How does it work and why does it exist?
Even the four-year election cycle in the United States works against democracy: politicians have a structural bias toward quick solutions and quick results. Tax cuts For example, subsidies are immediately visible and act as a strong disincentive to prioritizing longer-term issues such as infrastructure, climate change, and pandemic preparedness.
Another extraordinary feature of American democracy is The Electoral College Electoral systems and voting boundaries that give disproportionate power to certain districts. It takes a brave politician to pursue policies that jeopardize the voting support of their constituents. Battleground States Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, etc., even though such policies would be in the overall national interest.
Democrats may win in November. And Trump may not achieve the results his mercurial track record deserves. But at this moment, just four days after the debate, I vacillate between depression and anxiety. I am unimpressed by the merits of democracy. Autocracy can be bad, but so can democracy. It is often not the political structure that determines good governance but the integrity of the people who live within it.
David Dodwell is CEO of Strategic Access, a trade policy and international relations consultancy focusing on developments and challenges in the Asia-Pacific region.
