What was once a politically quixotic question — can leading Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden be replaced? — took on new urgency after Biden's tongue-in-cheek exchange with former President Donald Trump in Thursday night's debate.
The short answer is yes if Biden decides to step down of his own accord, but the short answer is probably no if Biden decides not to step down.
Either way, the process is likely to be complicated and create political chaos before Democratic delegates meet to vote for the nominee at the party's convention in August.
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Biden has the power to drop out of the race along the way and give up all of the delegates he has won so far (3,894 of 3,937, according to the Associated Press tally). If he does so, the delegates will be free to vote for whomever they choose, which would set up an open convention, a rarity in modern American politics.
This prospect raises many questions.
If Biden decides to drop out of the race, can he force delegates to support a candidate of his choice?
No. He could certainly nominate a successor, and that would mean something. But once the delegates are free, they're free. Loyalty to Biden runs deep, but it doesn't automatically extend beyond him. Floor fights could ensue over who the nominee is, highlighting deep-rooted ideological divisions within the party and potentially weakening future Democratic candidates heading into the fall campaign.
What does that mean for Vice President Kamala Harris?
Harris is likely to be one of about a half-dozen candidates vying for the presidential nomination, but her standing within the party is in doubt after her shaky tenure and weak polling numbers, and she would not be guaranteed the No. 2 spot on the shortlist if Biden were to replace her, even if she wanted to.
What is the timeline for a decision?
If there's one good thing for Democrats about Biden's dismal debate performance, it's that the debate took place in June, rather than just a few weeks before the election, as is traditionally the case.
There is still time to act, which would not have happened if this had played out in the September debate.
The nominating convention in Chicago opens on Aug. 19. But to get around an Ohio law that requires all presidential candidates to be legally certified by that date in order to appear on the November ballot, the party approved rules to hold a virtual roll call by Aug. 7. So we're basically talking about a five-week grace period.
A total of 3,934 pledged delegates will vote on the first ballot. If a candidate receives a simple majority of 1,968, that person will become the nominee.
If Biden resists pressure to step down, is there any way the party could move on its own to replace him?
Well, never say never. The party's official rules seem to give it some leeway: “All delegates to the national convention who support a candidate for president shall, in accordance with their conscience, reflect the sentiments of the people who elected them.”
So in theory, it seems possible that the Democratic Convention could vote for someone else—note the words “without compunction.”
But this isn't the 1968 Democrats. The rules then allowed party leaders to impose their will. In fact, they have since been rewritten to give the party more latitude.
“This is not the old days,” said Elaine Kamark, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, and an expert on convention rules and procedures. “There's no party leader. There's no one with the power to revoke the nomination.”
“The only way that could happen without Mr Biden's consent is if a majority of about 4,000 delegates decide that Mr Biden shouldn't be the nominee and that there is someone more qualified,” she said.
Who could be considered as his replacement?
In addition to Harris, other candidates include Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. Also notable are Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker.
What if Biden withdraws after the convention?
The Democratic National Committee's official convention procedures, adopted in 2022, give the committee the authority to select a new candidate if either the presidential or vice presidential candidate withdraws or dies.
The party's national chair, Jaime Harrison, consults with Democratic leaders in the Legislature and the Democratic Governors Association and submits a report to the Democratic National Committee, but the final decision rests with the nearly 4,000 committee members themselves.
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