- President Joe Biden reaffirmed his intention to withdraw from the race on Wednesday.
- If he does, Vice President Kamala Harris would be best placed to replace him.
- Harris has both practical and political advantages at her disposal.
If President Joe Biden were to pull out and Democrats decided to sideline Vice President Kamala Harris rather than be their top contender, it would present a practical and political nightmare for Democrats.
According to the Associated Press, Biden and Harris jointly told campaign aides on Wednesday they would continue to campaign despite facing growing criticism following Biden's disastrous debate performance.
“I'm running. I'm a leader of the Democratic Party. Nobody is trying to get rid of me,” he said, according to the Associated Press.
No one, especially Biden's running mate, appears to be publicly pressuring Biden to give up right now.
Maybe Harris will get the money.
If Biden does indeed announce his retirement, attention will likely shift quickly to Harris, who is by far the favorite to succeed Biden. Most importantly, campaign finance experts say, Harris has the easiest access to the Biden campaign's $240 million coffers.
No one knows what will happen to those millions if Biden leaves office, but Harris will likely have control over the funds — but only if she becomes the nominee.
“Should Harris succeed Biden as the presidential nominee, she would retain access to all of her campaign committee's funds and be able to use them to advance her position as a presidential candidate,” Saurabh Ghosh, director of federal campaign finance reform at the Campaign Legal Center, told Business Insider in an email.
Ghosh says that's because she sits on the same campaign committee as Biden, and given that she was the first to touch down on Biden's finances and that her name appears on Federal Election Commission filings related to Biden's candidacy, she is likely the only one who can use the funds without issue.
But the same rules would not apply if Harris remained as the vice presidential candidate or dropped out of the race altogether.
Federal contribution limits stipulate that no more than $2,000 can be exchanged between candidates per election, Ghosh said. The Biden campaign could redirect the money to a political action committee if another candidate is nominated, but there's a condition: PACs can only give up to $3,300 to different candidates per election.
“So in either case, there is no legal way for Biden to transfer the $90 million he currently has in his campaign to a new candidate,” Ghosh told Business Insider.
A massive donor refund effort could allow the Biden campaign to return donations and have donors redirect the money to new candidates, campaign finance experts told NBC. Or, in yet another scenario, the Biden campaign could shift the money to national parties.
All things considered, Harris coming in at the top if Biden leaves office seems like the easiest solution in terms of cash.
But of course, it's not just about money: While many have their eyes on Harris, long-standing questions remain about her viability as a candidate.
Harris enjoys strong support from core Democrats.
Pushing aside Harris would risk a backlash. The vice president has repeatedly said he supports Biden, but some key figures in the party have already backed Harris. Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina, who helped Biden win the 2020 primary, has said he wants Harris if Biden drops out.
“Whether she's in second place or first place, we should be doing everything we can to support her,” Clyburn said on MSNBC on Tuesday.
Always a focus of attention in Washington, it would be impossible to ignore the first female vice president for a male candidate, or the first black vice president for a white candidate.
Black voters remain the core of the modern Democratic Party. While no single group is monolithic, none of Biden's major running mates have come close to Harris' support in the black community. A recent Economist-YouGov poll found that 66% of black voters view Harris favorably. By comparison, only 47% of black voters view California Gov. Gavin Newsom favorably, and slightly fewer view Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer similarly favorably.
The same survey also found that voters don't know enough about Whitmer to form an opinion about her, highlighting another potential headache: Harris is one of the country's best-known politicians. A potential successor would likely need to introduce herself to the American people and on the national stage.
That doesn't mean Harris has an advantage in every respect. Her notoriety comes with a White House burden. Republicans will likely target her with the same attacks on the economy and immigration that they used against Biden. Unlike candidates outside Washington, Harris will have a hard time showing how she differs from the president.
Republicans are already preparing for Harris' candidacy if she wins the nomination and has campaign funds at her disposal. The Republican National Committee released a digital ad on Wednesday calling Harris “commander in chief” and holding her responsible for the chaos at the border.
Set against ominous music, the ad asks, “Is this the man we want as president?” It seems Democrats and their donors must answer that question, too.
