Far-right forces lose France's general election but set their sights on 2027 presidential election

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France's far-right Rally National (RN) party failed on Sunday in its bid to win the most seats in the country's early legislative elections, but party leaders and disappointed activists are keen to portray the defeat as a victory that will give it an edge ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

“Today the National Rally achieved the most important breakthrough in its history,” RN leader Jordan Bardella said in a five-minute speech 30 minutes after exit polls showed the party coming in third behind a left-centre coalition.

He argued that the results of the vote, which came after the RN's crushing defeat to President Emmanuel Macron's centrist coalition in June's European elections, “form the basis for tomorrow's victory.”

The party led the first round of voting last week with about 33 percent of the national vote and was expected to win 240 seats. It maintained its lead throughout the vote despite the so-called “Republican Front,” a coalition of centrists and leftists formed to block the RN from winning in constituencies where three candidates were elected.

However, exit polls published at 8pm local time predicted the party would win 138-145 seats, putting it in third place behind the NFP, which is made up of the Greens, Socialists, Communists and the far-left Unbowed France party, which is expected to win 177-192 seats.

Macron's Ensemble coalition surprisingly came in second, and is expected to retain between 152 and 158 seats.

No party or coalition has won the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, meaning they cannot form a government on their own.

“Better days lie ahead.”

“The National Coalition still faces a glass ceiling. The defeat was due to the withdrawal of many candidates in a love triangle situation,” Adam Sakow, program coordinator at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told Euronews.

“The RN is undoubtedly paying the price for the dual nationality protests that caused chaos before the elections. Jordan Bardella failed to calm things down. This is a lesson for someone who perfectly embodies the normalisation of the party: he is young, from an immigrant family, does not bear the name Le Pen, is eloquent and has influence on social media,” he added.

Bardella also blamed the “Republican Front” for his party's defeat, describing it in his speech as “an unnatural political alliance designed by all means to prevent the French people from freely choosing a different policy.”

Bardella said this “alliance of dishonor and a dangerous electoral system” meant that “at a time when fear and turmoil hit the country in the midst of a purchasing power crisis, France no longer has a strong government majority and therefore no clear path to rebuilding France.”

But party leaders and activists alike stressed that the night still represented a victory, as the party's seats had increased significantly from the 89 they held before President Macron dissolved the National Assembly.

“In the end we didn't get the results we hoped for, but we've almost doubled the number of MEPs, so it's not too bad,” Beatrice Rouleau, who retained her seat in the 6th constituency of Seine-et-Marne, told Euronews.

“It didn't happen this time, but it will happen next time because the French people expect it,” she told Euronews. “So, of course, there are better days ahead.”

Quentin Hoarault, the party's candidate in the 5th constituency of the Val d'Oise department, also stressed that “this is a historic score and shows that the National Union is really taking root everywhere.”

For Roman, the 50-year-old supporter, the outcome means “dozens more prepared people will be in power, so by 2027 we will be even more trusted.”

“Tonight it all begins.”

Failing to win an absolute majority and being forced to “coexist” with Macron may actually work to RN's advantage.

“They will not be forced to govern for the next three years and will therefore avoid any responsibility for what happens in France over the next few years,” Douglas Weber, professor emeritus of political science at INSEAD, told Euronews.

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“Since we cannot hold them responsible for what will happen in the next few years, they (probably Marine Le Pen) will likely win the next presidential election, especially given that the result creates a great deal of political uncertainty in France. It is completely unclear what kind of government will be formed as a result of this election,” he added.

President Macron and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal have signalled their intention to form a rainbow coalition government, but have ruled out any possibility of a coalition with the LFI, which they consider to be as extreme as the RN.

However, the LFI is expected to win 80 seats, the largest number in the NFP coalition. The Socialists and Greens are forecast to win 64 and 36 seats respectively.

Unlike other European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands, France has no history of building coalition governments, which could make negotiations and power-sharing difficult in the remaining three years of Macron's term.

“If the new progressive government fails to deliver, 2027 could be Marine Le Pen's year. All the ingredients are there for her to continue her progress over the next three years and realise her dream of becoming president of the republic,” Sakou said.

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The result means that the RN is the largest single party in France, as its two rival blocs are coalition governments involving multiple parties. The RN will also be sending France's largest delegation to the European Parliament after June's European elections.

“The National Rally will first strengthen its work in the National Assembly by supporting Marine Le Pen at home, then continue to work for national unity, uniting all French people and, of course, achieving the necessary democratic changes, and finally in the European Parliament, where from tomorrow our MEPs will play their role within the larger group,” Bardella said.

“Tonight it all begins. The old world has crumbled and nothing can stop those who are beginning to have hope again,” he said.