If President Joe Biden withdraws from his difficult reelection campaign, there is a chance that no Democratic presidential candidate will run in November's election in Washington, which would cost the Democrats their 12 electoral votes and make it more likely that former President Donald Trump will win. And it all hinges on a tough decision Biden makes.
After Biden's disastrous debate performance highlighted his apparent age-related cognitive impairment, Democrats and left-leaning media sounded the alarm. His interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos last week did little to calm the nerves of Democrats who see a strong chance of Donald Trump winning the November election. Panicked Democrats are now privately and publicly calling on Biden to end his reelection campaign. At the same time, Trump-hating media are amplifying their message in the hope that another candidate will emerge who can run in Biden's place.
The prospect of a Democratic convention in late August has never been more likely. But when it gets to that stage, Washington state's loyal Democrats likely won't have a like-minded candidate to back. Depending on the deadline for casting their ballots, Washington state may not be the only state without one.
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Is it possible that there will be no Democratic presidential candidates on the Washington ballot? Yes
Washington state law requires the nomination to be certified by August 20, 2024, two days before the end of the Democratic National Convention. Even if there was an open convention with various candidates battling it out for the nomination, it would not take place by the Washington state deadline.
“In the unlikely event that the DNC does not submit nominees for president and vice president, no one from the party will be on the list,” a spokesperson for the Secretary of State's office explained on KTTH's “The Jason Lantz Show” when asked what would happen at an open convention if provisional certification was not provided by August 20.
The timing of the DNC's nomination has always been a sticking point for Biden and the Democratic Party.
The state's deadline would have still stood even if there was no prospect of an open convention. But Democratic Secretary of State Steve Hobbs agreed to accept the provisional nomination from the Democratic National Committee by Aug. 20, which would certify that Biden will be the party's nominee after the convention. The move is not unprecedented; it was done by both Democrats and Republicans (including Trump) in 2020.
“Going past the Aug. 20 deadline would disrupt the ballot preparation process,” former Republican Secretary of State Kim Wyman explained exclusively on KTTH's “The Jason Luntz Show.”
The deadline and Democratic drama have created several scenarios that could impact the presidential election.
What different scenarios could play out if Joe Biden were to withdraw?
If Biden continues to campaign, Hobbs' office expects the provisional certification to take place on Aug. 20. A formal certification to match the provisional certification would then take place by Aug. 23.
Biden said he has no plans to withdraw from the race, despite the collective panic among Democrats in front of the cameras and behind the scenes. Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is reportedly rallying Democratic senators to urge Biden to step aside and allow another candidate to run for president. A spokesman for Warner would not confirm or deny the report. Instead, the spokesman issued a statement to The Washington Post saying, “Like many in Washington and across the country, Sen. Warner believes this is a critical time for the presidential campaign and has made that clear to the White House.”
If Biden withdraws and there is no candidate to replace him, such as deeply unpopular Vice President Kamala Harris, there will likely be no provisional certification by the deadline.
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What happens if the authentication doesn't match?
Democrats have submitted provisional certification of Biden, but internal party drama during the convention could lead to Biden dropping out. Only the president can release delegates to vote for another candidate. Assuming Biden doesn't drop out before the convention, delegates can't vote for another candidate until the second day.
Hobbs' office has left some leeway on how to proceed if the provisional certification doesn't match the official certification.
“If the provisional certification filed on Aug. 20 differs from the certification filed on Aug. 23, we will consult with legal counsel before making a decision,” a Hobbs spokesperson explained on KTTH's “The Jason Lantz Show.”
But to get a Democrat on the ballot in this scenario, it would appear state prosecutors would have to advise Hobbs to ignore the law and his own rules.
The law governing nomination certification is clear, giving Hobbs a legal framework for the Aug. 20 deadline. The purpose of the administrative rule is to give states enough time to print ballots, especially for military voters serving overseas. Federal law requires ballots to be mailed 45 days before an election. Depending on how extensive and complex a county's ballots are, the process could take at least six weeks.
“Uncharted territory”
Former Secretary of State Wyman is now watching the drama unfold from another angle. No longer bound by term limits as secretary of state, the Republican who left the job to work on election security under Biden and ultimately resigned, warned Hobbs and other secretaries of state that they'd better start planning for “what if” scenarios.
“This is completely uncharted territory,” Wyman explained. “There's a point where the voting process has to move forward. That's true across the country. There will be challenges every day that passes that deadline, no matter what happens, through litigation. Even Democrats could challenge the outcome of their convention if they don't like it.”
Wyman said election officials across the country should look to existing laws and regulations to plan their next steps.
“Mr Hobbs really needs to have a contingency plan in place. What happens if the candidate is not who was on the certification form? What happens if he doesn't select the candidate?” she asked.
She even thinks Hobbs and his colleagues should plan next steps “in case the candidate changes between the convention and Election Day.”
All of this assumes Democrats don't hold a digital roll call vote to nominate Biden as their nominee in mid- or late July, as had been planned when the Ohio House was considering a bill to change the Aug. 6 certification deadline.
There will be legal battles over voting rights.
If Governor Hobbs is forced to effectively remove Democratic candidates from the ballot, a lawsuit will undoubtedly be filed. It's unclear how that will proceed, but it's likely the justices will lean in the direction of allowing voters access to major party candidates. Timing is important, however. The longer the lawsuit drags on, the tougher it could become for the state to meet its printing deadline.
A potential legal challenge to Trump appearing on the Washington state ballot has gained some traction thanks to an endorsement from The Seattle Times.
In a column dramatically titled “Twist: Washington State Has a Law Barring Felons from Running,” author Danny Westneat quoted a local activist lawyer who said he has a client who is trying to keep Trump from running. The columnist noted that RCW 29A.68.020 gives registered voters the right to “challenge a candidate's right to appear on the general election ballot after a primary election.” This could apply to candidates who “have been convicted of a felony in a court of competent jurisdiction before the election and whose conviction has not been overturned or whose civil rights have not been restored since conviction.” Hobbs ultimately denied that this would be enough to keep Trump from running, but the judges would ultimately decide and could keep him running using the same grounds as for challenges to Democratic candidates.
It's not necessarily clear how the judges would rule if Joe Biden were to withdraw from the race too late.
Federal elections are regulated primarily by the U.S. Constitution and federal law, as established by the Supreme Court in Powell v. McCormack (1969) and U.S. Term Limits, Inc. v. Thornton (1995). However, administration of federal elections is the responsibility of each state.
States are responsible for administrative tasks such as voter registration, ballot design, and administration of election procedures. If state law requires Hobbs to comply with state laws and regulations, this would fall well within the state's administrative role in administering federal elections.
If, because of the timing of the Democrats' certification, there was no guarantee that the ballots were ready to comply with federal law, how could the judges justify ruling in favor of the Democrats? They cannot argue that it is better to disenfranchise a voter than to prevent that candidate from voting because of the candidate's own incompetence and infighting.
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Washington is favorable for Trump
While Trump will not have an easy time facing off against the Democratic challenger in Washington, the latest polls show that his support is stable and loyal, while support for Biden is weak.
A May Cascade PBS/Elway Poll had Biden's approval rating at just 42% (31% certain, leaning to the president but 11% likely to change their mind). Trump's approval rating was 34% (25% certain, leaning to the former president but 9% likely to change their mind). Both results came as a surprise to voters in this heavily Democratic state, as media coverage has been biased in favor of Biden and against Trump. It's hard to imagine a surge in approval ratings after Biden's debate debacle. With 13% of Washington state voters undecided, Trump could theoretically win the state.
“Washington state could now be an issue,” Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser and Seattle native, explained to sister station KIRO Newsradio shortly after the presidential debate.
“President Trump delivered the best debate performance in the history of the country,” Miller said in a text message to KIRO News Radio, “reminding millions of Americans of what true leadership looks like and restoring hope that we can fix our economy and secure our southern border.”
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