Brett Stephens: Hi Gayle, did you see the post-debate interview with George Stephanopoulos and President Biden? Did it ease your concerns about whether he would be eligible to run for a second term?
Gail Collins: Oh Brett, sigh. Biden certainly proved he can debate on TV without looking like a victim of senility, but if the goal was to show he could be a force in this kind of job, well, I was kind of disappointed.
It just seemed boring. I can't imagine anybody going into work and saying, “Wow, did you hear the president last night? I was so happy when he…”
Please tell me how it felt.
Brett: Is there a word that combines the sense of pain, despair and rage? It was painful to watch an old man being grilled about his mental state. It was sad to think that America has reached this point. It's a race between Caligula Unbound and Joe Six Hours.
But it's also infuriating to see Biden insist on saying he's fit to serve another four years as president, when he clearly isn't. It's infuriating to see him insist on saying he's the Democratic Party's favorite to beat Donald Trump, when he clearly isn't. And it's infuriating to see him say he doesn't need to take cognitive tests. These are words that describe this: denial, arrogance, and narcissism.
I think the country will pray for a better option and reward the party that gives it.
Gail: Do you mean a third party? If so, prepare yourself for my usual rant.
Brett: Not at all. It's clear that the Republicans aren't going to switch horses, so that means the Democratic candidate is better. Who will you root for?
Gail: We've been on a similar path before, but the debate seems to be getting more important every day. I always start with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and then name each one. But I have to admit that the almost inevitable choice if Biden drops out of the race would be Vice President Kamala Harris.
Brett: Whitmer would be a strong choice, but the state Democrats need to win most to keep the White House is Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes. That alone is a reason to choose Gov. Josh Shapiro, who, though only 18 months in office, has the advantages of being relatively young, very popular and clearly centrist.
Gail: Let me lament for a moment the anti-democratic structure of our democracy, a structure that gives the average voter who happens to live in Pennsylvania 100 times more influence than the average voter who happens to live in neighboring New York state.
Brett: So the more Republicans there are in New York and other blue states, the better the state will be for liberals to live in, at least when it comes to choosing the president. Sorry, continue…
Gail: I would be happy to see Shapiro on the list if there is a vote at the Democratic convention, but I'm not convinced the party can ignore her as the first female vice president, a Black woman, the daughter of immigrant parents and already Biden's most logical successor as vice president.
Brett: If the Democratic Party's goal is to stay true to their style of identity politics, Harris is clearly the best choice, but if the goal is to stop Donald Trump from retaking the White House (as I believe it is), she is just about the worst candidate, short of California's overly manipulative Governor Gavin Newsom.
Gail: We’ll save Newsom for another day.
Brett: Trump's nickname for Harris would be “Nuisance Governor.” Here are some of her problems: She's extremely unpopular, with a 37% approval rating and a 51% disapproval rating. She's only won one truly competitive election in her career. Fairly or not, she's been tied to immigration, which Americans see as the administration's biggest policy blunder. She did badly in the 2020 primaries. And I don't think she's going to be much of a magnet for swing voters in this election. Harris has a Hillary Clinton vibe about her, and we all know how that turned out in 2016.
So please tell me why I'm wrong….
Gail: I ignore your warning that the first female vice president might have a “Hillary Clinton vibe” – I know you have a lot of arguments to make, but to some it sounds like a no-women rule.
Brett: To be clear, I would be happy with Whitmer as a candidate and as president, and I would be happy with someone like Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo as president. My point is about electability, not gender.
Gail: Harris was not a popular running mate, but she did the job well, and she has been a much better campaigner than she was in 2020. The idea that the children of immigrants are not cut out to tackle immigration is somehow un-American.
Brett: I'd love to see some Harris magic, but I just can't see it. On another topic, Gayle, do you think a second term for Trump would be fundamentally worse and more horrifying than his first? I tend to think a second term would be stupid and often harmful, but not catastrophic. But I'm often too optimistic.
Gail: That's a good question, but a scary question. Unfortunately, Trump has a remarkable talent for feeling the temperature of the country and going where the thermometer is. I don't think he particularly cares about immigration, for example. He just knows a good phrase that gets applause.
Brett: In fact, I think that's one of the subjects he really cares about, as well as his protectionist instincts, which go hand in hand with his zero-sum approach to everything else in life.
Gail: If Trump wins a second term, he will have been one of the most powerful people on the planet for four years, with nowhere else to go. Our Constitution does not allow him to run for a third term. Trump will be deeply aware that he is in his 80s and doesn't have much time to rebuild.
So it's easy to imagine he'll do something drastic to stay on top, and what worries me most is what happens at the end of his term.
Don't you agree?
Brett: I once had a memorable informal meeting with a US president in the final year of his second term. He spent some time mulling over the startling limits of presidential power. In theory, a president can invade foreign countries, blow up the world, and deport millions of people. But in practice, a president can barely decide the menu for a state dinner.
Gail: Good point.
Brett: There is a separation of powers in this country. Not only between the president, Congress, and the judiciary, but also between federal, state, and local officials. Even the president, with his lawless instincts, is constrained by the Constitution, the courts, and countless other institutions with limited powers. After the 2020 election, the federal courts and even the military tried to block Trump's plans. Every patriotic Republican was ready to say no to him: Brad Raffensperger, Georgia's Secretary of State, Vice President Mike Pence, and Trump-appointed judges. Has the country changed so much that none of this would be true in a second term for Trump, who is not expected to be re-elected?
Gail: It's easy to imagine Trump trying to stage some kind of coup, only to be thwarted by patriotic members of his own party.
It's entirely plausible, and his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election shows he doesn't have much talent for a coup.
The only question is whether the country is so divided that a rebellion could break out. Even if the rebellion were to fail completely, wouldn't that be disastrous for the sense of unity of the country?
Brett: Trump attempted a quasi-coup. But it accomplished nothing. Trump spent four years as president. And now we are here. The Republic has survived Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Warren Harding, Herbert Hoover, and other duds. And it will survive Trump II. In fact, the more Trump's opponents, including me, hype him as the greatest threat to American democracy in history, the greater the danger of emulating Trump's tactics. The best way to defeat Trump is by taking the right measures.
Well, I'm going to go to synagogue now and pray that I'm not being deceived.
Gail: Two of your failures led the way in starting the Civil War and the other caused the Great Depression, I’m just saying, but I bet God is pleased with your positive thinking.
Brett: Gayle, that is a great response. I just pray that the Almighty God will convey that to Joe Biden so that he will step down and the Democrats will nominate the candidate who is most likely to win.
Oh, and one last thing: If you missed it last week, make sure you read Mario Colan's wonderful, moving account of how he became a reporter for The Times. He was a 28-year-old alcoholic who served a year in a Wisconsin prison for theft. “When the judge sentenced me, he said I was the epitome of a 'waste of human life,'” Colan wrote. “He wasn't wrong.” I won't reveal the rest of the story, but it's a powerful reminder that it's in the worst moments that things can only get better. I hope that's true for this country.
