For President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, a more powerful indicator than polls of reaction to the first presidential debate may be the betting odds.
Betting on presidential elections has a strong track record, having only lost twice since the 1800s.
Lee Phelps, a spokesman for British betting company William Hill, said the betting market, where bookmakers cannot legally operate in the United States, shifted to the right after the Biden-Trump debate.
“Trump and Biden have been clear market favorites over the past few months, but the June debate is shaping up to be the biggest blow to either of them so far. Trump is expected to return to the White House later this year, and I've moved his odds from 4/5 to 4/7,” Phelps said in an email to USA Today.
Phelps said the question of whether Biden will continue to campaign is driving money in the betting market.
“An interesting side-effect is whether Democrats opt to replace incumbent Biden with Kamala Harris as their campaign manager. Harris' odds are 11/2, slightly better than Biden's (9/2), but much lower than the 11/1 odds from just two weeks ago,” Phelps said.
As of July 9, the betting odds for the presidential election are as follows:
Presidential Election Betting Odds
William Hill
- Donald Trump: 4/7
- Joe Biden: 9/2
- Kamala Harris: 11/2
- Gavin Newsom: 10/1
- Michelle Obama: 12/1
Bovada
- Donald Trump: 5/9
- Joe Biden: 3/1
- Kamala Harris: 9/1
- Michelle Obama: 20/1
- Robert Kennedy: 45/1
Betting Online
- Donald Trump: -185
- Joe Biden: +275
- Kamala Harris: +750
- Michelle Obama: +2500
- Gavin Newsom: +3000
Odds Checker
- Donald Trump: -169
- Joe Biden: +520
- Kamala Harris: +950
- Michelle Obama: +2900
- Gavin Newsom: +3300
How accurate have betting odds been in past presidential elections?
According to The Conversation, the favorite has only lost twice since 1866.
The two upsets were in 1948, when Harry Truman (Democrat) beat Thomas Dewey (Republican) against 8-to-1 odds, and in 2016, when Trump overcame 7-to-2 odds to beat Hillary Clinton (Democrat).
Biden was the betting favorite in the 2020 election, leading odds-shakers from May through November.
