HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — In Pennsylvania, one of several states where pivotal legislative fights are playing out in the shadow of the presidential election, two battleground districts in key counties could determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
Democrat Brian Munroe and Republican Joe Hogan were elected to their seats in the northern suburbs of Philadelphia nearly two years ago, winning by margins of 515 and 76 votes, respectively, out of more than 30,000 cast.
Their election this year is one of dozens across the country that could determine party control of state legislatures and ultimately who sets public policy on contentious issues like abortion, guns and transgender rights. The election is especially important because of recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions. Weakening Federal Regulatory Oversight and gave more power back to the states.
“State legislatures determine what rights and freedoms we have and the direction our country is headed, and that couldn't be more important,” said Daniel Squadron, co-founder of the States Project, which recently announced a $70 million effort to support Democratic candidates in specific states.
All told, Democrats and Republican-aligned groups plan to pour hundreds of millions of dollars into state legislative contests. About 5,800 seats are up for election in 44 states this year. Key targets include six states where control of Congress is at stake: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
What you need to know about the 2024 election
Most of those states are also battlegrounds in the presidential election, and national political groups are in some cases trying to link the legislative candidates to the fortunes of President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, while in other cases trying to distinguish them from the top contenders.
Biden said: The debate performance was poor Campaigning in Wisconsin PennsylvaniaBut his political problems have led some Democrats to suggest he should step aside, fearing that lower-ranking Democrats could also be harmed if discouraged Democrats choose not to vote.
On Wednesday, Democratic lawmakers in Arizona and Wisconsin warned state legislative candidates would not canvass. Reverse coattail effectThe Democrats have taken the lead in the nomination race.
Democrats narrowly won control of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives two years ago, 102-101, but Republicans have been slammed for their tactics of inflation, immigration and the economy. Biden's troubles.
“If the election were held tomorrow, I'd be very happy,” said Rep. Josh Kail, campaign manager for Pennsylvania's House Republicans.
The Republican State Leadership Committee has already run ads in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin promoting GOP legislative candidates while blaming Biden and other Democrats for the inflation.
The Democratic Party Targeting Wisconsin The move comes after a new liberal majority on the state Supreme Court struck down Republican-led districting that had entrenched Republican power in the state, and new districting backed by Democratic Gov. Tony Evers gives Democrats a better chance of victory.
The Supreme Court's 2022 ruling will be the first in half a century Right to Abortion The decision demonstrated both the influence of national politics in state elections and the importance of state legislatures. After the decision, many Republican-led states banned or restricted abortion, while many Democratic-led states strengthened abortion protections.
The ruling gives Democrats a new campaign theme ahead of the 2022 congressional elections, the first to be held in districts redistricted using 2020 census data. took control of the legislature He broke away from Republicans in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.
Hogan and Munro's reelection bid this year is among 15 Pennsylvania House races being watched by the National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. Bucks County District Four years ago, voters cast just over half their ballots for Biden, then voted by wide margins for Democrats John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro in the 2022 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections.
“I believe we have a tremendous opportunity not just to protect our suburban majority, but to expand it,” Pennsylvania House Majority Leader Matt Bradford said.
Hogan's challenger, Democrat Anna Payne, sees abortion rights, public safety and school funding as key issues.
“To some extent, people want common sense,” Payne said. “We don't want anyone who is too extreme on one side or too extreme on the other.”
Hogan, a former congressional aide, has cultivated an image as a moderate in the Legislature, working on issues such as early childhood education and public transportation.
“I'm willing to work with anyone to do what I think is right,” Hogan said.
Rosemary Donahue, a 77-year-old retired nurse and Republican who said she has received a letter from Hogan and plans to praise his performance on issues such as repairing roads, supporting schools and women's health rights, said she follows state and national politics regularly.
“When you watch TV, you're bombarded with a constant stream of information about the presidential election, ads, everything, and it's hard to think about anything else,” Donahue said.
Arlene McBride, a recent voter in Munro's district, said she will be closely watching Munro's race with Bucks County Registrar Dan McPhillips to see who is more aggressive about preserving Social Security, and who has cited women's health, education and immigration as top priorities.
“Are they concerned about other people, or are they just thinking about business?,” said McBride, 90, a Democrat. “The people who are just thinking about big business don't really seem to care about people who are less fortunate.”
Surveys have shown that many voters know little about their state's congressional candidates, so “national politics will probably dominate state elections,” said Steven Rogers, a political scientist at St. Louis University who specializes in state legislatures.
While Republicans are trying to overturn their 2022 losses, Democrats are seeking to upend narrowly divided, Republican-led legislatures in Arizona and New Hampshire.
Immigration and inflation are particularly hot topics in Arizona, and abortion rights advocates have been voicing concerns recently. Petition signatures submitted That's to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot, raising the stakes in a state where voter registration is almost evenly split between Republicans, independents and Democrats.
“Arizona is a battleground state, so we expect a lot of the national issues, national trends, to have a big impact on the legislative elections in Arizona,” said James Strickland, a political scientist at Arizona State University.
___
Reeve reported from Jefferson City, Missouri.
