Two weeks after the June 27 presidential debate, 44% of registered voters say they would vote for or support Donald Trump if the election were held today. Fewer, 40%, say they would support Joe Biden or support Trump. Third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trails with 15% of voters, and 2% say they do not or will not support any of the three candidates named in the survey.
Asking voters to choose between the two major party candidates, Trump holds a 3 percentage point lead. Forty-seven percent support or tend to support Biden, while 50% support or tend to support Trump, roughly the same as voters' preferences in April. The survey does not include Kennedy.
Voting preferences among demographic subgroups
Many of the demographic patterns in this year's election are similar to recent elections, with Kennedy seeking to make a push in 2024 as an alternative to the two major party candidates and tending to draw support from younger voters.
sex
Men are more likely than women to support Trump in the 2024 presidential election, with 48% backing Trump to 38% supporting Biden. Among female voters, the split is even, with 40% backing Trump and 40% supporting Biden. Women are also more likely than men to support Kennedy.
Race and Ethnicity
White voters continue to strongly support Trump, with half saying they approve of the former president and a third saying they do. stronglyBy comparison, 36% supported Biden.
A majority of black voters support Biden, with 64% saying they would support him for president in the 2024 election, compared with 21% for Kennedy and 13% for Trump.
Hispanic voters are evenly split, with 36% backing Biden and 36% backing Trump. A quarter (24%) say they support Kennedy. Asian voters are more likely to support Biden (47% to 29%, respectively).
When the choice is narrowed down to Biden and Trump, voter preferences among racial and ethnic groups are roughly the same as they were in the April two-way matchup: Now, in the two-way matchup, 56% of white voters support Trump, while Biden has the support of 78% of black voters, 59% of Asian voters and 51% of Hispanic voters.
Year
Younger voters continue to favor Biden by a larger margin than older voters, but that gap narrows if Kennedy runs. Currently, 48% of voters under 30 support Biden, 28% support Trump, and 22% support Kennedy.
In comparison, voters over the age of 30 are more likely to support Trump: 42% of those between 30 and 49 support Trump, 37% support Biden, and 19% support Kennedy. Voters over 50 also support Trump by a wide margin, with 48% saying they would vote for Trump, 39% for Biden, and 11% saying they would vote for or support Kennedy if the election were held today.
Given the choice between Trump and Biden alone, 60% of voters under 30 would support Biden, while 39% would support Trump. Nearly half (51%) of voters ages 30-49 would choose Trump over Biden, while 46% would support Biden. And voters over 50, given the choice, would support Trump over Biden, 53% to 45%.
education
Voters with a bachelor's degree or higher continue to favor Biden, with 50% supporting or leaning toward supporting him, while 37% support Trump. The trend is reversed among voters without a four-year college degree, with 48% supporting Trump and 34% supporting Biden.
Partisanship
People who identify as belonging to a political party are much more likely to say they support their party's candidate than those who do not. Tilt Nearly nine in 10 people (92%) who identify as Republicans say they would support Trump if the election were held today, including 66% who say they would support him. stronglyThat compares with 69% of people who lean Republican, and 33% who strongly approve of Trump.
There is a similar divide among Biden supporters: More than eight in 10 Democrats (85%) support Biden, as do 68% of Democrats who are leaning away from the Democratic Party.
The majority of Trump supporters strongly Support him
As in the 2020 election, a majority of Trump supporters say they strongly support Trump in the presidential election compared to those who support other candidates.
This is the percentage of voters who support a candidate. strongly:
- 43% of Biden supporters
- 63% of Trump supporters
- 15% of Kennedy supporters
Slightly more Trump supporters (81%) than Biden supporters (77%). be They support him and are not going to change their mind.
Kennedy's supporters are far fewer enthusiastic. Only about a quarter (26%) said they definitely supported Kennedy.
Moderate supporters of Biden and Trump are less likely to be certain of their choice than hard-line supporters
Each Union strong Overwhelming majorities of supporters say they are confident about their choice in the November election (97% of strong Biden supporters, 98% of Trump supporters). Trump receives significantly more strong support than Biden (63% to 43%). However, moderate Biden supporters are more likely to say they are confident about their choice than moderate Trump voters.
Nearly three-quarters (76%) of moderate Biden supporters say they would definitely support Biden, while a majority (66%) of moderate Trump supporters say the same.
Where does this leave Kennedy supporters in a binary election?
Compared with Biden and Trump supporters, Kennedy supporters are less likely to say they intend to vote and are much less likely to say it really matters who wins the 2024 presidential election.
A majority of Biden and Trump supporters (63%) say they are very intent on voting in this November's presidential election, compared with just 21% of Kennedy supporters.
Similarly, while nearly one in eight Biden supporters (79%) and Trump supporters (78%) say it is very important who wins the presidential election, only 39% of Kennedy supporters view the election as similarly important.
When asked who they would support if there were only two candidates, Kennedy supporters were divided: 47% said they would vote for Biden, 44% said they would vote for Trump, and an additional 9% omitted the question.
