Joe Biden, the 46th President of the United States, is the presumptive Democratic candidate seeking a second four-year term in the election to be held on November 5th this year.
His nomination will be formalized by a roll call vote at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in mid-August.
After announcing he would seek a second term last April, Biden faced no significant challenger in this year's Democratic primary and won every state and territory except American Samoa, where he lost by just 11 of the 91 votes.
To win the Democratic nomination, 1,968 delegates were needed from the primaries and caucuses in those states and territories; Biden won 3,896.
Biden has been in Washington politics for almost half a century, serving 36 years as a senator, eight as vice president and four as president, so he should be in good political standing, at least within his own party.
It's not him.
His abysmal performance in the debate two weeks ago triggered a wave of panic among his supporters that at 81, Biden is too old to beat Trump, much less serve as president until January 2029.
A growing number of Democrats, including Vermont Sen. Peter Welsh, have publicly called for Biden to step down, and high-profile supporters such as actor George Clooney have joined a growing but still small chorus.
Other lawmakers, such as former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have not fully endorsed Biden in recent days. “It's up to the president to decide whether Biden will run,” she told NBC.
“Time is running out and we are all urging him to make that decision.”
Pelosi's comments were interesting because, as far as we know, Biden has decided to continue the campaign, and he has said so many times over the past two weeks.
The former speaker and longtime Biden ally seems to think the problem isn't over yet.
So if Biden decides to back out, what happens next?
There's no easy answer to that question, which is one reason why there isn't much pressure on Biden to drop out of the race.
It could get very tedious.
Unlike when the vice president takes over the presidency if the president becomes incapacitated or dies, the Constitution says nothing about succession of presidential candidates other than that to be elected, a candidate must be at least 35 years old, a “natural-born citizen of the United States,” and a “resident of the United States for fourteen years.”
So what happens next if Biden leaves office will depend on the Democratic Party's rules, which state:
“All delegates to the national convention who support a candidate for President shall act in accordance with their conscience and reflect the sentiments of the people who elected them.”
All 3,896 delegates Biden won in the primary were expected to vote for him, but what would they do if Biden withdrew?
The most sensible solution would be for Biden to “release” the delegates with the understanding that they would support Vice President Kamala Harris.
But party rules say delegates must examine their consciences based on the “sentiments” of the 16 million Democrats who voted primarily for Biden in the primary and not directly for Harris, who is not on the ballot.
Delegates and party leaders could also decide to make the nominating contest public, as was common before the 1970s, and hold a vote to see which candidate can secure the 1,968 votes needed to be nominated.
That could encourage more state governors, senators and even actors like George Clooney to run for the nomination.
Clooney 2024?
It's not impossible.
The last time something similar happened was, coincidentally, in Chicago in 1968, when, after Lyndon Johnson decided not to run and leading candidate Robert Kennedy was assassinated, fist fights broke out on the convention grounds and police rioted in the streets against anti-Vietnam War demonstrators.
In the end, Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who never ran in a primary, received the support of party leaders and won the nomination, but later lost the election.
Most experts agree that if Biden remains in the 2024 race, it will be nearly impossible to strip him of the nomination at the party's convention.
The rules can be changed, but not easily.
But in theory, Democratic Party rules would make it much easier to remove a candidate after the convention and before the November presidential election.
“Filling Vacancies in National Candidates: In the event of the death, resignation, or disability of a candidate for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the national convention, the national chairman of the Democratic National Committee, in consultation with the Democratic leadership in the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association, shall report such death, resignation, or disability to the Democratic National Committee, which shall have the authority to fill such vacancy.”
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That means the 200-member DNC, made up of governors, senators, former presidents and other party luminaries led by Chairman Jaime Harrison, would simply have to replace Biden due to death, resignation or disability. Would they declare him “disabled” because of signs of age or cognitive decline rather than serious health issues? Would they recuse themselves if Biden gives another bad interview or press conference or makes another gaffe at the next debate in September?
It's unlikely, but not impossible.
The last time this happened was in 1972, when running mate Tom Eagleton resigned as Senator George McGovern's running mate after revelations that he had used electroshock therapy to treat depression and drew fierce criticism as unfit for the presidency.
In all possible scenarios, including if the Democratic National Committee were to remove Biden, Vice President Harris is the most likely to succeed him. It is hard to imagine a party that relies on women and non-white voters to win would ignore the appointment of the first woman or person of color as vice president of the United States.
But these are unpredictable times, and no one knows what's going to happen next, probably not even President George Clooney.
John Baron is co-host of ABCTV's Planet America and Fireside Chat shows. He is also the author of Vote For Me!, a modern history of the US presidential election. Planet America will return on July 17th.
