As the Republican National Convention gets underway, former President Donald Trump has further strengthened his position as a leading contender for the 2024 presidential election.
The betting market, where bookmakers cannot operate legally in the United States, began to shift to the right after the debate between President Joe Biden and President Trump but has accelerated in Trump's favor since Saturday's assassination attempt, said Lee Phelps, a spokesman for British betting company William Hill.
“Donald Trump's survival of an assassination attempt onstage on Saturday has strengthened his chances of being re-elected as president of the United States,” Phelps said.
Trump was at -200 on Tuesday ahead of Biden's NATO press conference and the assassination attempt, but bettors had trimmed their positions to -275 as of Monday.
Phelps noted that over that same period, Biden's chances of winning the Democratic presidential nomination have fallen from 50% to -400%.
As of July 15, the betting odds for the presidential election are as follows:
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Presidential Election Betting Odds
Star Sports
- Donald Trump: -250
- Joe Biden: +450
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -300
- Joe Biden: +425
Betting Online
- Donald Trump: -300
- Joe Biden: +350
Odds Checker
- Donald Trump: -223
- Joe Biden: +520
How accurate have betting odds been in past presidential elections?
According to The Conversation, the favorite has only lost twice since 1866.
The two upsets were in 1948, when Harry Truman (Democrat) beat Thomas Dewey (Republican) against 8-to-1 odds, and in 2016, when Trump overcame 7-to-2 odds to beat Hillary Clinton (Democrat).
Biden was the betting favorite in the 2020 election, leading odds-shakers from May through November.
