July 17, 2024
As President Biden continues to face the fallout from his debate performance, seven in 10 people, including 65% of Democrats, think he should withdraw from the debates and the party should choose another candidate. Concerns are growing about whether President Biden is mentally capable of being an effective president, and few adults think he can win the presidential election in November.
The survey, conducted July 11-15, with much of it completed before the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, found that more Americans view Biden as honest than Trump, but they are also more likely to see him as capable of winning the November election and handling a crisis well.
Overall, 57% of adults say Trump should drop out of the race and allow his party to nominate a replacement, but he has maintained his party's support, with 73% of Republicans saying he should remain in the race.
Biden is facing further resistance from within his own party, with only 35% of Democrats saying he should continue in the race.
Black Democrats are among Biden's strongest supporters: Half of black Democrats say Biden should continue to run, while only a third of white and Hispanic Democrats say the same.
Younger Democrats are more likely to want Biden to drop out of the race: Three-quarters of Democrats under 45 want him to drop out, compared with 57% of Democrats over 45.
Thirty-seven percent of Democrats are satisfied with Biden as their party's nominee, up from 42% before last month's debate, but the number of Democrats who are dissatisfied has increased slightly, from 38% to 48%.
By contrast, about one in six Republicans remain satisfied, and about a quarter are dissatisfied with him as he leads the GOP field in November.
Younger Democrats are especially likely to say they are very unhappy with Biden as the nominee: About 4 in 10 say they are very unhappy with Biden as the likely nominee for their party, compared with 16% of Democrats over 45.
White and Hispanic Democrats are more likely than Black Democrats to express dissatisfaction with Biden staying in power for another four years.
Few adults believe either Biden or Trump have the mental capacity to be president, but they have more confidence in Trump than Biden.
Nearly half of Democrats say they have little or no confidence in Biden's mental ability to serve as president, up from a third in February, while just 27% say they have extremely or very confidence in Biden's ability to be an effective president, down from 40% in February.
Republicans are showing increased confidence in Trump: 60% of Republicans are extremely or very confident that Trump has the mental capacity to serve effectively as president, not much different from February.
Forty percent of Americans say “honest” is a better description of Biden than Trump.
But Americans are more likely to think Trump could win the 2024 election than Biden, and are more likely to be seen as better able to handle a crisis.
About a third of adults say Biden has a better vision for the country, including about 1 in 70 Democrats, and another third say Trump has a better vision, including about 1 in 70 Republicans.
Biden and Trump's favorability ratings have remained stable: Six in 10 adults have an unfavorable view of Trump, and about the same number have an unfavorable view of Biden.
Forty-three percent of adults have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris, including 74% of Democrats. Most of the public doesn't know enough about Senator J.D. Vance to have an opinion about him. After the poll was completed, Trump picked Vance as his running mate.
Thirty percent of the public believes Harris would be a good president, including 58% of Democrats and 20% of independents. 22% of Democrats do not believe Harris would be a good president, and 20% say they do not know enough about the matter to make a judgment. Meanwhile, 39% of independents do not believe Harris would be a good president, and 40% say they do not know enough about the matter to form an opinion. 87% of Republicans say Harris would not be a good president.
Most of the public has no opinion of either California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who have both been mentioned as possible candidates to succeed Biden.
This national poll was conducted July 11-15, 2024 using the AmeriSpeak® Panel, a probability-based panel of NORC at the University of Chicago. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and mobile phones were conducted with 1,253 adults. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.8 percentage points.
