Vice President Harris disembarked from Air Force Two in Milwaukee ahead of a campaign event on Tuesday.
Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images
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Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP via Getty Images
The 2024 presidential campaign has been reset with more voters moving into the undecided camp in favor of Kamala Harris as the likely Democratic nominee, a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll finds.
While Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, 1 in 5 independents and nearly 3 in 10 independent women say they're currently undecided, meaning the next few weeks will be crucial for Harris to re-advertise before opinions harden.
The survey also found that Democrats are now more confident in their chances of winning, and Black voters in particular say they are more motivated to turn out to vote.
But both Harris and Trump will have to woo key voting groups: young people and non-white voters for Trump, and independents, suburbanites and white voters overall for Harris.
Regarding Biden's decision to step down from the presidential race, an overwhelming majority of Americans support his choice, and two-thirds believe he should complete his term rather than resign.
Harris and Trump are statistically tied
- In the head-to-head contest, Trump has 46% to Harris' 45% and 9% are undecided. A Marist College poll earlier this month found just 2% were undecided between Trump and Biden. The poll of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday through an online research panel. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points, meaning the result could be about 3 points higher or lower.
- In the five-candidate race, Trump and Harris each received 42% of the vote, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 7%, his lowest percentage since Marist College began trying him out in April. Independent Cornel West and Jill Stein of the Green Party received just 1%.
- Notably, as the race has shifted from a head-to-head matchup with Trump to a third-party contest, Harris has retained more Gen Z/millennial voters and non-white voters than Biden. Earlier this month, Biden saw his support drop 13 points among these younger voters and 10 points among non-white voters, while Harris has largely maintained her support among those groups.
A significant number of different groups are now moving into the undecided category.
With the number of undecideds growing, Harris appears to have an opportunity that Biden did not have — a key sign of how much of a fresh start this is for the campaign.
Democrats overwhelmingly want Harris to be their nominee.
- Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they want her to be the nominee by a 77%-22% margin.
- Black voters were more likely than any other subgroup to say Biden's departure from office made them more likely to vote – 50% said so – while Latinos (46%) and voters ages 18-29 (43%) were also the most likely to say they were more likely to vote.
While Americans agree that Biden made the right choice by not running for reelection, most believe he should complete the presidency.
- 87% said stepping down was the right thing to do, including 87% of Democrats and Republicans and 90% of independents.
- Two-thirds (68%) think Biden should serve out his term. Republicans are sharply divided, with 53% saying he should resign and 47% saying he should serve out his term.
The majority said the decision would increase Democrats' chances of winning.
- By a 41%-24% margin, Americans say Biden's decision makes it more likely that a Democratic victory will come this fall, while a third say it would make no difference.
- Two-thirds of Democrats (65%) say it would improve opportunities, while 38% of independents think so and 21% don't. A majority of Republicans (42%) say it would make no difference, and most Republicans say it would do more harm than good (36% to 21%).
Harris started off with a negative favorability rating, but it was slightly better than Trump's.
Harris received a combined positive and negative rating of 40% to 44%, with 15% saying they had never heard of her or were unsure about her, while Trump received a rating of 43% to 49%, with 8% unsure about her.
- In the last Marist poll, Biden's disapproval rating was seven points lower than Harris'.
- Trump's disapproval rating is four points lower than in the Marist College poll conducted before the convention, so the convention could see a slight boost in his approval ratings.
- Black voters have the highest favorability rating of any group for Harris, at 61%. White evangelical Christians (73%) and men without a college degree (62%) also have the highest favorability ratings for Trump. These figures show which voters make up the strongest segments of each candidate's base.
This is a critical moment for Trump's running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, because many people have yet to form an opinion of him.
- 41% said they had never heard of him or were unfamiliar with him, while only 28% had a favorable opinion and 31% had an unfavorable opinion.
There is little consensus on the vice presidential candidate, as little is known about him.
- Twenty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would like to choose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as their running mate, and another 21% would like to see Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as their running mate, followed by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (17%), Arizona Senator Mark Kelly (13%), North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (8%), Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker (7%), Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear (6%) and Maryland Governor Wes Moore (6%).
Biden's presidency, colored by partisanship, is not seen as a positive one.
- Half of those surveyed said Biden will be remembered as a below average or one of the worst presidents in history (31% said the worst and 19% said below average), while a quarter said he would be average and another quarter said he would be above average or one of the best presidents.
- But opinions vary sharply by party affiliation, with 85% of Republicans and 57% of independents saying Biden is below average or one of the worst, while 55% of Democrats say he is above average or one of the best.
- For comparison, when Trump leaves office, a large majority (60%) said he would be remembered as below average or one of the worst. In 2016, 40% of respondents said former President Barack Obama would be viewed as the best or above average, compared with 31% who said he was below average or one of the worst.
Digging into the numbers, Harris has some work to do among independents, suburban voters and white voters.
- Harris, who faces Trump, has the support of only 32% of independents, while Biden has 46% in the last Marist College poll. Among white voters, Biden has 40% of support, while Biden has 47%. Among women who live in small cities and suburbs, Biden has 58% of support, while only 42% of support.
- Trump now leads 50% to 42% among suburban voters, where Biden previously led 56% to 42%.
- But Harris has an opportunity to persuade these voters. One in five independents (21%) are now undecided, up from just 4% previously. Eleven percent of small city/suburban women voters are also undecided, up from 2% in the last survey, as are suburban voters, up from 2% previously. Seven percent of white voters are also undecided, up from just 2% earlier this month.
But Trump sees declining support among younger voters, non-white voters and those without college degrees.
- Trump's approval rating fell 9 points among voters under 35 and those without a college degree, as well as 8 points among non-white voters and parents with children under 18.
