what's happening
Days after President Biden announced he was dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, Democrats en masse endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to succeed him as the party's nominee.
In a statement announcing the end of his campaign, Biden called on Democrats to “unite” in supporting Harris as his candidate to challenge the former president. Donald Trump Ms. Harris won the Democratic nomination in November, and party leaders, wealthy donors and rank-and-file Democrats followed suit, issuing a flood of letters of support for her, making her all but certain to win the nomination at next month's Democratic National Convention.
Biden was the first in 56 years to choose not to run for reelection when he was eligible for a second term, but his performance in last month's debate was so harsh that it no longer necessitated long-simmering doubts about his ability to successfully run a presidential campaign, sparking a push within his party that ultimately led to his resignation.
Why is there a debate?
Biden's withdrawal and Harris's rise will surely fundamentally change the presidential race, but there is strong disagreement over what that change will look like in practice, and whether the new candidate will be enough to put the Democrats on the path to defeating Trump.
Polls of a theoretical Harris-Trump matchup, mostly conducted before Biden withdrew, have shown Harris's approval rating at or slightly above Biden's. At least one poll conducted after the president withdrew has her ahead of Trump, but it's too early for those surveys to fully reflect the impact of Harris actually becoming the nominee or how the race would change if she began campaigning in earnest.
Harris has clearly brought enthusiasm to a Democratic Party that has been mired in internal bickering over Biden's candidacy for weeks. “This is a whole new campaign, a whole new atmosphere,” one Democratic consultant told Politico. And the atmosphere isn't the only change: Harris' fundraising team raised a record-breaking $81 million in contributions within 24 hours of Biden announcing his candidacy.
One of her strongest strengths may simply be the fact that she is not Joe Biden, whom the majority of Democrats did not want to seek a second term. Harris, 59, not only eases Democratic concerns about Biden's age, but also creates an opportunity to make the age issue an issue for the 78-year-old Trump. Biden's withdrawal before the Democratic nomination made Trump the oldest major party presidential candidate in U.S. history. Optimists within the Democratic Party argue that Harris's relative youth and experience as a prosecutor make her well-equipped to counter Trump in ways that Biden could not.
But many are skeptical that Harris can significantly change the dynamics of a race in which polls showed Trump leading before Biden dropped out. Some Republicans say Harris is probably easier to counter because they believe she can connect with both Biden's record on issues like immigration and inflation and the more progressive policy positions she took before becoming vice president. Harris' critics also have serious doubts about her abilities as a campaigner, pointing out that her 2020 presidential bid fell apart before the first primary vote was cast.
Outlook
She turned her age from a major disadvantage into an advantage.
“She's not 81, and she's not Trump. To a lot of people, that's all she needs.” –Michael Tomaski, The New Republic
Harris gives Democratic hope lost under Biden
“Two years of drift and decline vanished in a flash of hope.” — Jonathan Chait, New York
Voter dissatisfaction with Biden will also hinder her.
“Her greatest liability is inheriting the policy legacy of the Biden administration.” — The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board
She has the skills to deliver a clear rebuttal to Trump that Biden did not.
“Her most important qualification is her ability to prosecute the case against Donald Trump. That she is the presumptive frontrunner even before the Democratic nomination is officially decided introduces an entirely new dynamic into the 2024 presidential race: prosecutors versus convicted criminals.” — Frederick Barron and Dennis Aftergut, The Bulwark
Her poor performance as vice president will weaken her position.
“Vice President Harris' performance has been almost universally poor wherever she has been visible. She has received little attention since taking office.” — Haley King, Washington Examiner
Harris can attract exactly the kind of voters Democrats need to win.
“She has real strengths. She could inspire younger voters, especially young women, who have turned their backs on Biden. She could give new energy to black voters.” — Frances Wilkinson, Bloomberg
If Harris was truly the candidate who could beat Trump, Biden would have stepped down a long time ago.
“One of the big reasons Democrats didn't do more to block President Biden's reelection a year ago was the widespread perception that Vice President Kamala Harris was unelectable. Now many Republicans are excited about the possibility of running against her.” — Philip Klein, National Review
Harris is not a strong enough candidate to take advantage of the opportunities she's been given.
“Does anyone really believe that Harris is a likely candidate to stop Trump from re-election?” — Jason Wyrick, The Washington Post
She put herself in a position to attack Democrats for the first time.
“If Harris relentlessly insists that 'Donald Trump can't be trusted' on abortion, Obamacare, tax cuts and jobs, Trump will have to spend time and money contradicting her and antagonizing abortion opponents and other MAGA supporters. But can Harris be her boldest self?” — Patrick Healy, The New York Times
Trump is in such a strong position that his opponents are irrelevant
“It doesn't matter who the Democrats elect. They can't stop what's going to happen.” — Helen Andrews, editor-in-chief of The American Conservative, tells Politico
Photo illustration: Yahoo News; Photos: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images, Alex Wong/Getty Images, Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
