Alan Lichtman, a presidential prognosticator who has correctly predicted nine of the last 10 White House races, made his preliminary prediction for the November election, saying Friday that Vice President Kamala Harris is likely to win.
Lichtman said he would release his final White House prediction in August after the Democratic National Convention, but as of Friday, Harris appeared to be the winner based on the formula he uses to predict election outcomes.
The formula, “13 Keys to the White House,” was developed by Lichtman and renowned mathematician Vladimir Kaylis-Vorok in 1981. Since then, the formula has been used to predict the outcome of US presidential elections with a high degree of accuracy.
Lichtman uses 13 keys, or criteria, to judge a party's ability to remain in power during an election year. If the party in the White House is deemed successful on eight or more of the “keys,” the incumbent party is expected to win. If the incumbent party is deemed unsuccessful on six or more of the criteria, or “keys,” the challenger is expected to win.
Lichtman detailed his assessment in a recent video podcast: Below is a summary of his tentative judgment.
What are the “keys” that Harris has acquired?
Harris has won eight of the 13 keys so far, including:
- KEY 2 – NO CONTESTED PRIMARY: Was there a viable challenger or contest to determine the incumbent party's nominee? No. President Joe Biden endorsed Harris after dropping out of the race on Sunday, effectively paving the way for her to become the interim nominee. No viable challenger has emerged from within the party.
- Key 4 – No Third Party: Historically, third parties have been a liability for the party in the White House. “They are an expression of dissatisfaction with the way the country is being governed,” Lichtman says. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would need to get 5% of the vote to hold this key, and Lichtman says he would need to hold steady at 10% in the polls through November. Lichtman says it's unlikely Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will get that percentage.
- Key 5 – Near-term economic strength: Even though we are in an election year, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession so far.
- Key 6 – Long-term economic strength: Real economic growth during his term has exceeded that of the previous two terms. “Real” economic growth means growth adjusted for inflation, Lichtman said. “Long-term growth under Joe Biden's administration has been significantly above the average of the previous two terms,” he said.
- Key 7 – Major policy changes: A major shift from the previous administration or a truly historic policy change, such as the New Deal. “It's clear that the policies of the Joe Biden administration are fundamentally different in almost every area than the policies of the previous Donald Trump administration,” Lichtman said.
- Key 8: No social unrest: “It can't be isolated protests like we saw on some college campuses this spring,” Lichtman said. “It has to be mass protests and unrest like we saw in the 1960s and the Black Lives Matter movement, when millions of people took to the streets,” Lichtman said. This key could be important if mass unrest emerges before or during the Democratic National Convention.
- Key 9 – No Scandal: Similar to Watergate, there must be some corruption that directly implicates the President, and the scandal must be recognized as corruption on a bipartisan basis.
- Key 13 – Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenger candidate, former President Donald Trump, does not appeal to voters across party lines.
What is the “key” that Harris has lost?
- Key 1 – Winning in the Midterm Elections: The party holding the White House will win this key only if it holds more U.S. House seats after the 2022 midterm elections than it did in the 2018 midterm elections.
- Key 3 – Incumbent seeking reelection: A sitting vice president is not a sitting president. If Biden leaves office by November, effectively making Harris the incumbent president, Biden would win this key, Lichtman said.
- Key 10 – No diplomatic/military failures: Lichtman pointed to unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine as the reason Democrats lost this key.
- Key 11 – Major Foreign/Military Success: Similar to key 10, the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine are why Democrats would lose this key. If the U.S. could successfully broker a ceasefire and hostage release agreement between Israel and Hamas, the lock could be opened, Lichtman said.
- Key 12 – Charismatic Incumbents: Candidates affiliated with the incumbent party need to appeal to voters across party lines, as former President Franklin Roosevelt did.
