Venezuela elections: Will voters re-elect Maduro or give the opposition a chance?

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuela's future is on the line: Voters will decide Sunday whether to re-elect President Nicolas Maduro, whose 11 years in office have been marred by crisis, or force the opposition to make good on promises to reverse ruling party policies that caused an economic collapse and forced millions to flee the country.

A historically divided opposition has coalesced behind one candidate, posing the United Socialist Party of Venezuela's most serious electoral challenge. Presidential Election Over several decades.

Maduro is Former diplomat Edmundo González UrrutiaThe Democratic Party of Brazil has 11 candidates in the running, including Libya, which represents a resurgent opposition party. Supporters of Mr. Maduro and Mr. Gonzalez held large demonstrations in the capital, Caracas, on Thursday to mark the end of the official electoral season.

Here's why elections matter to the world:

The impact of migration

More than 50 countries will hold elections in 2024

The election will affect immigration flows regardless of the winner.

Venezuela's instability over the past decade More than 7.7 million people were forced to relocateThe UN refugee agency has described it as Latin America's largest exodus in recent years. Most migrants from Venezuela have been resettled in Latin America and the Caribbean, but an increasing number are turning to the United States.

About a quarter of Venezuelans are considering leaving the country if Maduro is re-elected, according to a nationwide poll conducted in April by Venezuela-based research firm Delfos. About 47% of them said they would stay if the opposition won, and about the same number said they would stay if the economy improved. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The main opposition leader is not running.

The most talked-about name in this race is not on the ballot. Maria Corina MachadoA former lawmaker, she emerged as an opposition star in 2023, filling the void left when the previous generation of opposition leaders defected. Her principled attacks on government corruption and mismanagement have It rallied millions of Venezuelans Vote for her in the opposition primary in October.

But the Maduro government declared the primary illegal and launched a criminal investigation into some of its organizers. Since then, the government has issued arrest warrants for several of Machado's supporters and arrested several of his staff, and the country's Supreme Court has upheld a decision to bar him from running.

But she continued her campaign, holding rallies across the country and turning her ban from running into a symbol of the disenfranchisement and humiliation that many voters have felt for more than a decade.

She is backing former ambassador Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who has never held public office. Help unite rival opposition parties.

They are campaigning together on promises of economic reforms that would bring back millions of people who have emigrated since Maduro took office in 2013.

Gonzalez began his diplomatic career in the late 1970s as an aide to the Venezuelan ambassador to the United States. He served in Belgium and El Salvador and as ambassador to Algeria in Caracas. His last post was as ambassador to Argentina under President Hugo Chavez, beginning in 1999.

Why is the current president struggling?

President Maduro's popularity has declined due to falling oil prices, corruption and an economic crisis caused by government mismanagement.

Maduro can still rely on a group of die-hard believers known as Chavistas, including millions of civil servants and those who depend on the state for business and employment. But his party's ability to use social welfare programs to get people to vote is dwindling. The economy has declined.

He is the successor to Hugo Chavez, a popular socialist who expanded Venezuela's welfare state while at odds with the United States.

Chavez, who was stricken with cancer, named Maduro interim president after his death, and Maduro took office in March 2013 and narrowly won the presidential election the following month that was sparked by his mentor's death.

Maduro was re-elected in 2018 in what was widely seen as a sham election. His government banned Venezuela's most popular opposition parties and politicians from participating in the election, and the opposition called on voters to boycott the election because there was no level playing field.

This authoritarian tendency was part of the logic used by the United States in imposing economic sanctions that crippled the country's vital oil industry.

Mismanaged oil industry

Venezuela is The world's largest proven oil reservesBut production has declined for several years due to government mismanagement and widespread corruption at the state oil company.

In April, the Venezuelan government Tarek El Aissami's arrestThe once-powerful oil minister and ally of Maduro has come under fire over a scheme that has allegedly wiped out hundreds of millions of dollars in oil revenues.

That same month, the US government reimposed sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector after President Maduro and his allies used the ruling party's total control over Venezuela's institutions to undermine an agreement to allow free elections, including blocking Machado's registration as a presidential candidate and arresting and persecuting members of his team.

The sanctions make it illegal for US companies to do business with the state-run Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) without prior authorization from the US Treasury Department, and the outcome of the election could determine whether the sanctions will remain in place.

An Unlevel Playing Field

When Maduro's government won the presidential election last year, the prospect of a freer and fairer presidential election was raised. Agreed to cooperate Maduro has agreed to improved electoral conditions with the U.S.-backed Unity Platform coalition for elections in October 2023. The agreement on electoral conditions gives his government broad relief from U.S. economic sanctions against the state-run oil, gas and mining sectors.

However, a few days later, authorities deemed the opposition primaries illegal and began issuing warrants to arrest human rights activists, journalists, and opposition members.

A UN-backed commission investigating human rights abuses in Venezuela has reported that the government has intensified its crackdown on critics and opponents ahead of the elections, subjecting them to detention, surveillance, intimidation, smear campaigns and arbitrary criminal prosecution.

The government has also used its control over the media, the country's fuel supply, the power grid and other infrastructure to curb the influence of Machado Gonzalez's camp.

In response to the escalating measures against the opposition, the Biden administration earlier this year ended sanctions relief it had granted in October.

Click here for AP coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america