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A billboard for the film “Deadpool & Wolverine” went up in Times Square in Manhattan, New York City on July 25th.
new york
CNN
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“Deadpool & Wolverine,” one of the most anticipated films of the year, is living up to expectations so far with $96 million in domestic opening day grosses, according to ComScore data.
Industry analysts say the summer blockbuster is on track to gross more than $200 million at the domestic box office over the weekend, which would be a record-breaking feat for the franchise.
“An R-rated film opening with $200 million at the box office is a huge benchmark in the industry, and until this film it was literally unheard of,” said Daniel Loria, editorial director at Box Office Pro.
The first Deadpool movie, released in 2016, set a new box office record with about $132 million in its opening weekend, and Deadpool 2 came in second with $125 million domestically in 2018. But Loria said that even when adjusted for inflation, neither movie is close to the third movie's projected box office haul of $200 million to $220 million.
An opening weekend gross of that magnitude would put “Deadpool & Wolverine” on par with Marvel's highest-grossing flagship films, such as 2012's “The Avengers” ($207 million) and 2018's “Black Panther” ($202 million).
“This is a top 10 opening weekend of all time and the sixth-highest Friday box office opening of all time,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “It's also the best opening weekend ever for Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman and (director) Shawn Levy.”
Dergarabedian added that the film's promotion, critical success and audience enthusiasm “made this late July weekend one that will go down in movie history.”
According to data from Box Office Pro, excitement surrounding “Deadpool & Wolverine” has driven demand for theatrical releases, increasing the number of showings of the film in cinemas across the country, where it now accounts for 43% of the U.S. screentime market share.
The film received an audience score of 97% on Rotten Tomatoes, the second-highest score for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film after Spider-Man: No Way Home, and received an “A” CinemaScore, the same as its previous two films.
After a lackluster spring box office performance, the summer box office got off to a sluggish start, but there were some big hit movies that energized the industry.
“Since June, we've seen a string of unexpected hits come out, starting with Bad Boys 2, followed by Inside Out 2, A Quiet Place 2: Day One, Despicable Me, Twisters and now The Wolverine, creating one of the most notable summer blockbusters in movie history,” Dergarabedian said.
Last week, Disney announced that “Inside Out 2” had grossed $1.46 billion worldwide, making it the highest-grossing animated film of all time. It beat the previous record-holder, 2019's Frozen 2.
Leading up to the film's June 16 release, domestic box office revenues were running more than 25% below their 2023 performance, according to ComScore data. But less than three weeks after the film's release, the year-over-year deficit in domestic box office revenues has narrowed from 27% to 19%.
The deficit is currently at 16.9%, and could narrow further depending on how Deadpool and Wolverine perform. This time last year, Super Mario Bros. The Movie led the domestic box office with more than $574 million, while the enduring success of Barbie and The Oppenheimer's Journey (both released on July 21) has propelled 2023's domestic gross to more than $9 billion, the highest since the pandemic began.
Analysts are predicting more moderate totals for 2024, but the success of summer movies means the industry is poised to close the gap even further.
“This weekend's results certainly make us more optimistic about the 2024 box office outlook, but there's still a long way to go until the end of the year and year-over-year comparisons will continue to be up and down,” Dergarabedian said, predicting full-year box office receipts of between $8.2 billion and $8.7 billion. “The fact that we're likely to end up over $8 billion is pretty impressive, especially considering the weak first quarter and April revenues.”
