Top Line
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris suddenly find themselves in a tight race with about 100 days until the election.
Democratic presidential candidate and US Vice President Kamala Harris disembarks from Air Force Two. … [+]
Key Facts
A Wall Street Journal poll has Harris trailing Trump 47% to 49%, but the margin of error is 3.1 to 1, meaning the race could be close until the very end.
A HarrisX/Forbes online survey of more than 3,000 voters released Friday (with a margin of error of 1.8%) found the vice president trailing Trump 45% to 47%; however, when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is included, Trump's lead narrows to one percentage point (43% to 42%), with Kennedy receiving 9% of the vote and 6% undecided.
When asked if they had a favorable view of Harris, 44% said yes, compared with 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% of Biden, 36% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and 34% of Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance.
In addition to Trump's one-point lead over Harris, the 19th News/SurveyMonkey poll also found that 87% of Americans approve of Biden's decision to end his campaign, and more Americans believe the decision will benefit Democrats (45%) than Republicans (29%).
The News poll on Tuesday also found that Americans are divided on whether Harris' gender or race would be a positive or negative influence on her, with 31% saying being a woman would be a positive for her, 33% saying it would be a negative, and 34% saying it would have no effect.
Respondents were optimistic that Harris's being Black and Indian-American would be an advantage for her, with 32% seeing it as a benefit and 24% seeing it as a detriment, while 41% expected it to have no effect.
The New York Times/Siena poll, conducted July 22-24 among 1,142 voters, gives Trump a one-point lead among likely voters, 48% to 47%, and a two-point lead among registered voters, 48% to 46%. The latest polling shows that Harris is narrowing Trump's lead over Biden, who was trailing Trump by six points in an early July poll.
In a six-way race against third-party candidates that includes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (6%), Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are tied with 42% support among registered voters, according to the Times/Siena poll.
The Times/Siena poll found that Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than Biden, with about 80% of Democrats saying they want Harris to be the nominee, compared with 48% who said the same about Biden three weeks ago.
Two polls conducted since Biden's withdrawal have shown Harris in the lead: A Morning Consult presidential week poll conducted July 22-24 among 11,297 voters gave Harris 46% approval, well ahead of Trump's 45%, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday gave her 44% approval to Trump's 42%.
Four other polls also point to a Trump victory. A CNN/SSRS online poll conducted July 22-23 gave Trump a three-point lead over Harris, 49% to 46%. Another Morning Consult poll gave Trump a two-point lead, 47% to 45%. An NPR/PBS/Marist poll gave Trump a one-point lead, 46% to 45%. And an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sunday-Tuesday gave Trump a three-point lead, 44% to 41%. That poll also gave Kennedy a 5% approval rating.
Polls have consistently shown Harris ahead of Biden. The last Ipsos/Reuters poll, conducted July 15-16, had her and Trump tied at 44% approval, but a July 1-2 poll showed Trump leading by one point. It's unclear, however, how polls conducted when Harris was still a fictitious candidate differ from those conducted after she became the leading candidate.
The CNN/SSRS poll and Morning Consult poll also found that Harris is performing better against Trump than Biden, who was six points behind Trump in a Morning Consult poll conducted before he dropped out of the race and six points behind him in CNN/SSRS polls conducted in April and June.
In contrast to the sentiment about Biden's mental health, 56% of voters in a Reuters/Ipsos poll said Harris is “mentally alert and able to handle challenges,” compared with 49% who said the same about Trump and 22% who said the same about Biden.
Amazing facts
A New York Times/Siena poll found that voters are paying even more attention to the race in the aftermath of the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, with about 64% of respondents saying they are now paying a lot of attention to the contest, compared with 48% before the debate.
How will Harris perform against Trump in battleground states?
An Emerson College poll released Thursday showed Trump leading Harris by 5 points or less in four of the five battleground states and tied in Wisconsin, with Harris leading Biden in all five of those states – Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.
tangent
In most polls before Biden withdrew his candidacy, the president and Harris had roughly equal approval ratings over Trump. Trump had slightly increased his slim lead over Biden following Biden's dismal performance in the June debates. A Forbes/HarrisX poll conducted July 19-21 showed Trump leading Biden and Harris by six points each, expanding his lead over Harris by two points and Biden by four points since the last poll conducted July 13-15. A Yahoo/YouGov poll conducted July 19-22 showed Trump and Harris tied in head-to-head races, with Harris trailing by two points in a six-way race featuring third-party candidates. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted last week showed Trump leading Harris by three points and Biden by five points. An Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 13-16 projected Biden to lose to Trump 41% to 43%, while Harris fared slightly worse, 39% to 44%.
Big numbers
1.9. That's how many points Trump leads Harris in a Real Clear Politics polling average that includes the Morning Consult poll and nine other polls conducted before Biden withdrew. The average does not include the Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Tuesday. As of Sunday, when Biden dropped out of the race, Trump was leading Biden by 3.1 points, up 1.6 points from June 27, when the debate took place, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average.
Contra
In a memo published shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was released, Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio said Harris' entry into the race is expected to reinvigorate Democrats and predicted a “short-term” increase in her approval ratings in the coming weeks, calling the expected increase a “Harris honeymoon.”
Main Background
Biden withdrew from the race on Sunday, resisting calls from his party to give up on reelection following the June 27 debate. Before his withdrawal, Biden was trailing Trump by 3.1 points in the RealClearPolitics average, but that has risen by 1.6 points since the debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris, who also announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around Harris, with all Democratic state governors and a majority of Democrats in Congress endorsing her. On Monday, Harris announced plans to formally vote for the nomination with more than half of all delegates, effectively securing the Democratic nomination. The party is expected to hold a nomination vote as soon as the first week of August. According to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 87% of respondents believe Biden made the right decision in his decision to withdraw from the race, and 41% of voters (65% of Democrats) believe Harris will improve the party's chances of winning the November election.
References
HarrisX/Forbes poll shows Trump's lead over Biden and Harris widens after Republican National Convention (Forbes)
Here's how Kamala Harris is performing in the polls against Trump: Biden drops out, endorses Harris (Forbes)
