noSouth Korea's defence minister said North Korea may be considering timing a nuclear test to boost its profile during the US presidential election as Kim Jong Un unveils new warheads capable of hitting the US and its Asian allies.
South Korea will reach an agreement with Japan and the United States to standardize tracking of missiles launched by North Korea, Foreign Minister Shin Won-sik said in an interview in Tokyo on Sunday. He was in the Japanese capital to sign an agreement with the United States and Japan to finalize security cooperation outcomes, including joint military drills.
“North Korea is prepared to conduct a nuclear test as soon as it decides to do so,” Shin said. “We cannot rule out the possibility that the critical moment could be just before or just after the U.S. presidential elections in order to increase its leverage over the United States.”
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North Korea has a tendency to time its provocations around major political events. Kim held three in-person summits with President Donald Trump during his presidency, but North Korean state media has denied Trump's comments about his relationship with Kim. North Korea has also had harsh words for the Biden administration, ignoring its calls to return to long-stalled denuclearization talks.
North Korea's last nuclear test was in September 2017, its most powerful bomb to date, with an estimated yield of 120 to 250 kilotons. The Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analyses estimated in a paper published in January 2023 that North Korea possesses 80 to 90 warheads, adding that it aims to have 100 to 300 in the long term.
North Korea last year released photos of Kim Jong Un inspecting the country's largest nuclear warhead display since he took power nearly a decade ago, signaling progress the country is making in miniaturizing its nuclear arsenal. The tests could be to verify the capabilities of advanced nuclear bombs for use with a variety of delivery systems, the Open Nuclear Network said in a June 2023 report.
Shin said the United States, Japan and South Korea began sharing real-time data on missile launches in December last year and had developed standard operating procedures for information sharing.
“The three countries have almost reached an agreement on the SOPs,” he said, adding that he expected the agreement to be signed soon.
read more: The U.S. is strengthening its alliances across Asia, but don't expect an “Asian NATO” to emerge anytime soon.
North Korea may also cooperate with Russia in conducting nuclear tests. The United States and South Korea say the transfer of arms is part of efforts to support Russian President Vladimir Putin's attack on Ukraine. During Putin's first visit to North Korea in 24 years last month, Kim Jong Un promised unconditional support for Putin's military activities in Ukraine.
The two countries also signed a mutual defense pact, rekindling cooperation forged during the Cold War and now underpinned by their nuclear weapons. Putin has signaled that Russia is prepared to use its veto at the UN Security Council to block new sanctions for Kim Jong Un's weapons tests in defiance of UN resolutions.
The risks to the world are enormous: An all-out conflict on the Korean peninsula could kill millions and cost the global economy $4 trillion in the first year, or 3.9% of GDP, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics — more than double the cost of a Russian attack on Ukraine.
Shin said North Korea had sent 12,000 containers to Russia that could contain as many as 5.6 million artillery shells, and that North Korea had also sent a number of ballistic missiles to support Putin's war effort.
“We believe that Russia is providing technological assistance not only for rockets, but also for the conventional modernization that North Korea wants to achieve,” Shin said. “We need to monitor over time how these technologies are transferred to North Korea and how they translate into changes to its weapons systems.”
Shin's visit to Japan will be the first by a South Korean defense minister in 15 years. Cooperation between the two countries has grown since conservative President Yoon Seok-youl took office nearly two years ago and sought to repair ties that had deteriorated over historical issues.
The move has allowed the Biden administration to strengthen trilateral cooperation and bring Asian countries closer together on security issues. The United States has tens of thousands of military personnel stationed in both countries.
Singh hailed the improved ties and said it was in the interest of both countries.
“Japan will be safer if South Korea can act as a shield on the front lines,” he said, referring to the threat from North Korea. “For South Korea's security, we will be stronger if we have strong support from Japan in the rear.”
