Washington – In mid-April, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was on the ballot as an independent presidential candidate in Utah and Michigan, but his campaign is trying to get him on the ballot in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. They say they are working on it.
Mr. Kennedy's supporters say he is not running for the White House solely to hand the election to another candidate. They say he is the real deal and has a chance of winning the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election.
Getting on the ballot in enough states to secure 270 votes, or just over half of the 538 total electoral votes, is no small feat for a third-party candidate. But it is possible.
“I think it's very likely that he'll vote on all 50 votes,” said Bernard Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University who studies third parties. “Simply put, I can't say for sure that he will, but it looks like he's heading in that direction.”
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The Kennedy campaign announced that it has completed a signature campaign in seven states: Utah and Michigan, as well as Nevada, Idaho, Hawaii, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nebraska, and Iowa.
American Values 2024, a super PAC supporting Kennedy, announced it had collected enough signatures in Arizona, Georgia and South Carolina.
However, the campaign has not yet completed any paperwork or filed any petitions in those states. The report noted that most states still have several months to submit their documents, as the deadline for most states is not until July or August.
The campaign says it is trying to avoid a legal battle by choosing the right time to file the petition and holding onto signatures until the 11th hour in hopes of fewer challenges to them.
Kennedy is already running into trouble. Administrative issues in Nevada. The campaign learned in March that it would likely have to start the signature process all over again after failing to include a running mate on the petition it used to collect signatures in the state.
Paul Rossi, the Kennedy campaign's ballot access attorney, said, “After successfully collecting all the required signatures in Nevada, the Democratic National Committee's rogue team and their henchmen in the Nevada Secretary of State's office were able to complete legal “They are making up new requirements in their petitions without any basis whatsoever.” complained.
In addition to various state regulations regarding ballot access and costly legal battles, Kennedy faces opposition from Democratic groups aimed at weakening third-party campaigns.
Earlier this year, the Democratic National Committee assembled teams to run against third-party and independent presidential candidates. The effort will rely on other groups, including Third Way, MoveOn, and Clear Choice, a new super PAC backed by President Biden's allies.
“President Biden and President Donald Trump are the only two candidates who can win 270 electoral votes,” Democratic National Committee spokesman Matt Corridoni said. “The stakes are high and we know this election will be close, which is why a vote for a third-party candidate is the same as a vote for Donald Trump.”
Kennedy's campaign says it plans to ensure voting access in all 50 states, with Kennedy aiming to steal votes from Biden and support former President Donald Trump's presidential bid. I rejected that view.
“Our campaign is a spoiler, and I agree with that. It's a spoiler for President Biden and it's a spoiler for President Trump,” Kennedy said last month when announcing his running mate, Nicole Shanahan.
Some states have a short period to collect signatures. Some have provisions for signature thresholds to be met in every county in the state. More than half of states require independent candidates to have a running mate.
Gathering enough signatures in any state is not difficult. Tamas said many require only 1,000 to 5,000 signatures. Louisiana doesn't require a signature and costs him $500 in fees. Other states have higher thresholds. Texas requires more than 113,000 signatures and Florida requires more than 145,000 signatures.
And these are the number of valid signatures required. Third-party candidates must meet that goal to ensure enough signatures in case some signatures turn out to be invalid.
In states like Hawaii, where the Kennedy campaign claims it has collected enough signatures, it is more convenient to run with a party affiliation than as an independent candidate. Kennedy supporters have also collected signatures in California, Mississippi, North Carolina and Delaware to form a “We the People” party, which could nominate Kennedy as its presidential candidate.
The Kennedy campaign says its goal is to collect 60% of the signatures in each state, exceeding the signature threshold.
“We have field teams, volunteers, legal teams, paid circulars, supporters and strategists ready to do the job,” campaign spokeswoman Stephanie Speer said. “We are outperforming all benchmarks and plan to announce new states every week.”
But Mr. Tamas argues that Mr. Kennedy should aim even higher, approaching doubling the number of signatures needed.
“I'm surprised they're saying it's as low as 60. We can't take any chances,” Tamas said.
Gathering signatures is expensive. Kennedy's super PAC estimates it will cost about $40 million to $50 million just to collect all the necessary signatures, but Tamas, RFK Jr.'s running mate and Google co-founder Sergey – Pointed out that Brin's ex-wife, billionaire Shanahan, has financial power. resource.
Tamas said collecting signatures is not the most difficult thing, but the battle for signatures is the real battle. Democrats will fight hard to invalidate President Kennedy's signature.
“You really have to prepare for a fight, so a lot of the cost is not actually collecting signatures, but actually the legal costs of fighting the states,” Tamas said.
Democratic lawmakers are already trying to block Kennedy from voting in Hawaii and Michigan.
Historically, nearly every state had independent candidates who secured access to the ballot. In 1968, former Alabama Governor George Wallace and in 1992, businessman Ross Perot appeared on the ballots in all 50 states. Ralph Nader's candidacy in 2000 spanned his 43 states.
Only Wallace was able to win the electorate. Perot's staggering 19% of the popular vote in 1992 was not reflected in the Electoral College.
Russell Barney, Mr. Perot's former campaign manager, said third-party candidates must overcome more obstacles now than in the past.
“Every time there's a reasonably successful independent candidate, state legislatures made up of Republicans and Democrats who don't like competition by nature raise the state's barriers to voting,” Bernie said. . “The requirements for appearing on the ballot in these states continue to become increasingly difficult with each election cycle.”
But “I don't think anyone in RFK's position would think Democrats are going to stop him,” Tamas said. “I think he’ll probably be on most, if not all, votes.”
To be successful as a third-party candidate, you need to focus on individuals who aren't represented by the major parties, and that's a problem for Kennedy, Tamas said.
“He's all over the place, but it's not really clear what disaffected groups he's trying to tap into,” Tamas said. “Part of it is that he's into conspiracy theories. But if someone is a conspiracy theorist, they're probably going to support Donald Trump.”
At this point, Kennedy's ballot petitions are listed in all states where signature collection is complete on his website: Nevada, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, Iowa, North Carolina, and New Hampshire. If the Act were approved, the state of Louisiana would also be approved, as mentioned above. In the two states where there are no signature requirements and where he is on the ballot, he could win 73 electors. Add in the three states where his super PAC claims to have signatures, and you have 36 more states, giving him 109 states.
The latest YouGov/Economist national poll shows Biden and Trump tied at 44% and Kennedy at 3%.
Mr. Tamas predicted that Mr. Kennedy's support was likely to decline by November.
But it is not yet clear whether Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump stands to lose more from Mr. Kennedy's election.
“No one knows who he's going to get votes from,” Tamas said.
