80% of Venezuelan voters want government change
Illustrations are by Conetas. Used with permission.
This article was written by Cristian Ascencio and published on CONNECTAS on March 20, 2024. An edited version is republished on Global Voices under media partnership.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro doesn't like to compete. When he sees an electoral threat, he imposes sanctions or new rules on his opponents. He won't let go of his ball of power. He would even rather punch a hole than risk losing the match.
Faced with this scenario, there is an opposition party that has historically struggled to unite against a president who was first elected in 2013 and has been on the presidential ticket for three consecutive years. But last year, a turning point appeared to have arrived with the results of the primary elections for the Venezuelan Unity Platform, which unites the opposition. María Colina Machado, a conservative leader and one of the most radical anti-Chavista figures, said: received 92% of the vote in the primary election (just over 3 million votes), took part in a historic election due to the large number of participants.
This hope did not last long in the face of the reaction of the two organizations, which, like all state powers in the country, are dominated by Chavismo. Not only did the National Election Commission ignore the results of the primary, but the Supreme Court disqualified Machado from running for public office after 15 years. That's because she has been accused of supporting sanctions against Venezuela and possibly participating in a “provisional election.” Juan Guaido was proclaimed president during the 2019 presidential crisis.
This made it clear that the Maduro government is not concerned about abandoning the progress it has made with the United States through the recent Barbados agreement in negotiations with the rebels. In this, the United States demanded, among other things, guarantees of free elections.
The deadline for candidate registration expired on March 25, and the Maduro government did not allow Maria Colina Machado to register, citing the disqualification of her chosen candidate, academic Corinna Yoris. In other words, this presidential election will be the first in Venezuela since the inception of Chavismo in which no opposition candidate was selected in the primary vote.
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Chavismo, on the other hand, is clinging to power using a different strategy. In other words, he has imposed a very strict election schedule, giving the opposition less time to act (the election was scheduled for July 28, rather than the traditional presidential election in December). Non-legislative obstacles prevent opposition parties from participating in elections and impede the work of international organizations. For example, a month ago, the Maduro regime expelled the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights from Venezuela.
July 28th, Venezuelan presidential election. ¿ Do you guarantee transparency? #Oppenheimer PresenterDomingos a Las 9pm, Hora de Miami. @Oppenheimera https://t.co/7RyW6dULbZ
— CNN Spanish (@CNNEE) March 17, 2024
Presidential elections will be held in Venezuela on July 28th. Is transparency guaranteed? #OppenheimerPresents, Sunday 9pm (Miami time). @oppenheimera https://t.co/7RyW6dULbZ — CNN en Español (@CNNEE) March 17, 2024
Eugenio Martinez, Venezuelan journalist, election expert, and director of Votoscopio.com, explains: with international sanctions. ”
Political science professor Javier Corrales points to historical examples from Latin America that are similar to the current electoral crisis. In 1973, Argentina's military government indicated its intention to allow democratic elections, but only on the condition that General Juan Domingo Peron could not run for office. The general then decided to support Hector Campora, and in fact the motto of his campaign was “Campora to government, Peron to power”.
And they actually won, and their successors only had two months in office. He called for new elections, and this time Mr. Perón was able to register, and of course he won.
And what did Maria Colina Machado say? On the night of March 17, she said on social media that her government, as in the past, hopes to disqualify her to compete with her false opposition candidate. “This reaction is a sign of weakness… They have lost their social base and the mechanisms of intimidation no longer work,” she stressed. “They're not going to take us out of this election route…The winning hand is not up for negotiation,” she said almost at the end of the video, which is clear that they won't recognize Mr. Yoris' registration. It was a few days before it happened.
The ban on Maria Colina Machado and Colina Yoris has also drawn criticism from people who were previously almost unconditional allies of the Maduro regime. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the disqualification was a “measure without legal basis or legal basis.” French President Emmanuel Macron “categorically condemns the exclusion of serious and credible candidates” and called for the possibility of candidates to participate in the elections to be restored, a statement echoed by Colombian President Gustavo Petro. He said it was “definitely an anti-democratic coup” that was preventing opposition parties from registering as candidates.
More than 1,400 people in Venezuela have been disqualified from running for election, including Freddy Superlano, who was expected to win the gubernatorial election in Barinas state, who was suspended during vote counting. ing. There's also Enrique Capriles, who won 49 percent of the vote in the 2013 presidential election. In 2017, the year before the new presidential election, he was disqualified from holding public office for 15 years, along with Maria Colina Machado.
According to political science doctor Luis Salamanca, surveys show that 80% of voters want a change of government. “So, in order to seize that opportunity, the opposition has to think about something. Mr. Maduro is not a good candidate, and given the weight of the social, economic and humanitarian crisis of these terrible years. If we do that, we could lose,” Salamanca explains.
Chavismo already has a long history of election manipulation. In 2015, the Roundtable for Democratic Unity won a majority in parliament. But the administration put up all sorts of obstacles, and ultimately the Supreme Court ruled: that Majority In the same year, the opposition made a huge mistake by declaring Juan Guaidó as interim president.
#enterate Venezulans in Argentina accurately record their electoral intentions in Venezuela, determine their voting intentions as registered voters in elections, and participate in presidential elections. #28July pic.twitter.com/5JofsJalOG
— Talcual (@DiarioTalCual) March 18, 2024
#FindOut Venezuelans in Argentina go to the headquarters of the Venezuelan embassy in Argentina to register or update their data in the electoral register in order to be able to vote in the July 28 presidential election pic.twitter .com/ 5JofsJalOG — TalCual (@DiarioTalCual) March 18, 2024
Meanwhile, many opponents still regret their decision not to take part in the last election, which President Nicolas Maduro won with 67.8% of the vote in 2018, according to the National Election Commission. At the time, more than 60 countries did not recognize the vote as valid. It didn't really matter.
Chavismo is accustomed to international condemnation and sanctions, so what factors could force President Maduro to hand over power, as other dictatorships in Latin America did in the last century? becomes a problem. Perhaps the president and his allies will seek to secure some degree of immunity in order to accept that scenario. There are also other points of contrast. President Maduro feels that he is supported by extracontinental powers such as Russia and China, which, unlike 20th century militaries, have the distinction of supporting dictatorships around the world.
The latter further complicates the situation. Things will change in Venezuela because, as journalist and election analyst Eugenio Martínez puts it, domestic and international actions will cause rifts in the coalition and lead to “a costly negotiation process.” [for Chavismo] The cost of leaving power decreases significantly, but the cost of maintaining power increases. ”
