About half of voters say they would switch between the two candidates on their ballot if given the chance.
Pew Research Center conducted this survey to understand how voters view the 2024 presidential election and how the public views President Joe Biden. For this analysis, he surveyed 8,709 adults, including 7,166 registered voters, from April 8, 2024 to April 14. All participants in this study are members of the Center's American Trends Panel (ATP). ATP is a recruiting online research panel. Through a random sampling of residential addresses across the country. In this way, nearly every American adult has the opportunity to choose. The survey is weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, and other categories. Learn more about ATP's methodology here.
Below are the questions and answers used in this report, as well as the research methodology.
As the 2024 presidential election heats up, American voters are faced with a choice similar to that of four years ago, and many are not satisfied with it.
With more than six months until the election, a new Pew Research Center study reveals the following: The presidential election is virtually evenly contested.: 49% of registered voters support Donald Trump or lean toward voting for him, while 48% support Joe Biden or vote for him.
The features of this contest are: Voters have little confidence overall which one candidate They are assessed across a range of key characteristics, including suitability for the job, personal ethics and respect for democratic values.
When Trump has an advantage: More than a third of voters are very or extremely confident that Trump has the physical (36%) and mental fortitude (38%) necessary to carry out the job of president. replied.
Far fewer say the same about Biden (15% have at least very confidence in his physical strength and 21% have very or very confidence in his mental strength). The majority said they had little or no confidence in Biden's physical and mental strength.
If Biden has an advantage: More voters are very or extremely confident that Mr. Biden (34%) will act ethically in office than Mr. Trump (26%). And while 38% say they are at least very confident that Biden will respect the country's democratic values, fewer people express that level of confidence in Trump. Less than 34%. The survey was conducted before President Trump's “hush money” trial began in New York City.
(See Chapter 2 for more information on how voters view Biden and Trump.)
2024 presidential election situation
A new survey of 8,709 adults (including 6,039 registered voters) conducted by the center from April 8 to 14, 2024 shows that voters' candidate preferences vary significantly by age, education, race, and ethnicity. It turned out that they were divided. As was the case in 2020, younger voters and voters with a four-year college degree are more likely to support Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump.
Older voters and voters without a college degree support Trump by wide margins.
Among racial and ethnic groups:
- white voters Trump (56%) supports Biden (42%) by a wide margin.
- Approximately three quarters black voters (77%) supported Biden and 18% supported Trump.
- hispanic voters 52% support Biden and 44% support Trump.
- asian voters They support Mr. Biden (59%) more than Mr. Trump (36%).
(See Chapter 1 for more information about voters' candidate preferences.)
Most voters who voted in 2020 will support the same candidate in 2024. Among validated 2020 voters who voted for Biden (91%) and Trump (94%) this year, the overwhelming majority support the same candidate. Registered voters who did not vote in 2020 are almost evenly split, with 48% supporting Trump and 46% supporting Biden.
A majority of voters say it “really matters who wins” in the 2024 election. Currently, 69% of voters say it is very important to them which candidate wins this November's presidential election. This is slightly smaller than the percentage who said this about that year's election in April 2020 (74%). About the same percentage of Biden and Trump supporters say the outcome of the presidential election really matters.
About half of voters would replace both Biden and Trump in their 2024 vote
Reflecting their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Trump matchup, nearly half (49%) of registered voters say they would if they had the ability to choose a major party nominee for the 2024 election. Exchange both Biden and Trump voting results.
Biden supporters in particular are likely to say they would replace both candidates if given the chance. Roughly 6 in 10 (62%) say this, compared to 35% of Trump supporters.
There are also noticeable age-related differences in these views. 66% of voters under 30 say they would switch between the two candidates if given the chance, compared to 54% of voters 30 to 49 and less than half (43%) of voters 50 and older. )was. older.
(For more on voter sentiment about the upcoming election, see Chapter 3.)
Evaluation of President Biden and President Trump
- 42% of voters overall say Trump was He was a good or great president, while 11% said he was average. This is the slightest improvement since March 2021, two months after he left office.
- 28% of voters said it was Biden. teeth While 21% said he was a good or great president, 21% said he was average. These views are roughly the same as June 2020's assessment of the type of Biden president. right – But today, a smaller percentage of voters say he is average.
(For more on our assessment of the Biden and Trump presidencies, see Chapter 1.)
Other findings: Biden's inauguration approval rating increases, Trump's election-related criminal charges
- Biden's support among the general public: Biden's approval rating currently stands at 35%, about the same as his approval rating in January (33%). However, his job ratings rose slightly among Democrats during this period. Currently, 65% of Democrats support him, an increase of 4 points since January. (For more information on Biden's approval ratings, see Chapter 4.)
- Presidential election concessions: A majority of voters say it is important for the losing candidate in November to publicly recognize the winner as the legitimate president. But Trump supporters are much less likely than Biden supporters to say it's very important (44% vs. 77%). (For more information on voters' views on electoral interests, see Chapter 3.)
President Trump's criminal charges related to the 2020 election
As President Trump faces charges of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election, 45% of Americans say they believe his actions violated the law. By comparison, 38% of people said his actions influenced them. do not have Breaking the law – 15% of them said his actions were wrong but not illegal, and 23% said he did nothing wrong. In nearly 2 out of 10 people he's not sure.
Democrats primarily argue that Trump broke the law. Republican opinion is even more divided. An overwhelming majority (78%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump's actions to change the outcome of the 2020 election are against the law.
Among Republicans and Republican voters:
- 49% said Trump did nothing wrong.
- 21% said he did something wrong but did not break the law.
- Nine percent said Trump broke the law.
- 20% are not sure.
