The top races have already been decided, and Pennsylvanians turned out sparsely, perhaps reluctantly, in this week's primaries.
USA TODAY Network's unofficial and preliminary estimates put turnout at less than 30%, several percentage points lower than turnout in the 2020 presidential primary. Nearly 250,000 Pennsylvanians also voted against both President Joe Biden and his likely Republican challenger, President Donald Trump, a candidate who has already conceded and is no longer campaigning. supported the person.
“I spend time with college voters every day, and I don't think they're excited about a Trump-Biden rematch, not just because it's a rematch, but because it's not interesting to them. It’s not just because I’m a candidate,” Jenny said. Sweet Cushman is a political science professor at Chatham University in Pittsburgh.
“There's a real lack of opinion on politics. They go from thinking, 'Those candidates are 80 years old,' to 'Why would they care about my future and my chances of having a family?' It's not that big of a leap to think, 'What?' So they're very nervous.”
“If I don’t vote in the primary, can I vote in Pennsylvania’s general election?”
Biden and Trump became the Democratic and Republican nominees, respectively, more than a month ago.
Two years ago, there were at least some signs that a showdown was on the cards between President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was rallying in Pittsburgh with Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano in September 2022. there were. However, Mr. DeSantis lost to Mr. Trump in the middle of the Iowa caucuses by a 30-point margin. – In January of this year, I dropped out completely before the end of the month.
“Pennsylvanians are at a huge disadvantage compared to many other states in terms of influence over presidential candidates,” said Joseph Morris, dean of the political science department at Mercyhurst University in Erie.
Because Pennsylvania's primaries occur several weeks after those in many other states, presidential primaries are often decided long before voters in the commonwealth cast their votes.
“What motivation do people actually have (to vote) other than for a position they don't really understand, like auditor general?” Morris said.
That sentiment may have been best reflected in a popular internet search Wednesday. “If I don’t vote in the primary, can I vote in the general election in Pennsylvania?” was the top query on Google Trends.
“Based on what we saw yesterday, I don't know if we can say too much about November,” Morris said. “No one knows who decided to stay home or who came to vote.”
protest vote
With about 96% of votes counted, 68,490 Pennsylvania Democrats (7%) voted for President-elect Dean Phillips instead of Biden.
An even higher percentage of Pennsylvania Republicans disparaged Trump for Nikki Haley and her defunct campaign. Haley received 156,986 votes, nearly 17% of the total.
“Neither the Democratic candidate nor the Republican candidate is completely unpopular,” Morris said.
“Joe Biden's approval ratings, at least at this point in his term, are probably the worst of any president in the last 20 years. And when it comes to favorability, both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are worse. People just don't get it. Not like these candidates. ”
Morris said last year that he believed the public's distaste for Biden and Trump would result in an independent or third-party candidate gaining national attention, similar to Ross Perot's rise more than 30 years ago. He said he was doing it.
“By June 1992, Ross Perot's approval rating was just under 40 percent nationally. Robert F. Kennedy still has a long way to go to reach Ross Perot's level,” Morris said.
Morris said if Kennedy stays in the race and votes in Pennsylvania, Biden's winning streak will become even more difficult. He cited polls showing Kennedy siphoning slightly more support from Biden than from Trump when included on a hypothetical ballot.
“Even a 'marginal' amount would be enough to decide the outcome of the election,” Morris said.
Kyle Kondik, a political analyst at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, is less certain about Kennedy's potential influence. He believes Kennedy could win over more Trump supporters than Biden supporters because of his outspoken criticism of the coronavirus vaccine and the nation's chief medical adviser, Anthony Fauci.
Kondik also said that “protest” votes against Biden, for example, were driven by “ancestral Democrats” in coal-mining counties such as Cambria, which have become more closely aligned with Republicans, even though they have never changed party affiliation. There is a possibility that it may have come from a member of the staff.
“Similarly, there will still be registered Republicans in southeastern Pennsylvania who will not vote for (Trump),” Kondik said. “Party registration can be a kind of indicator that lags reality.”
What will happen to Pennsylvania's vote in November?
Pennsylvania is one of the few battleground states likely to determine the outcome of the presidential election, so both polling and election strategy in the Commonwealth should continue to be in the national interest.
“There was a huge protest vote against Nikki Haley,” Sweet Cushman said. “The question is… are these voters who are going to consider Biden? Are they going to be voters who are going to stay home? Are they going to be voters who can beat Trump, (or) are they going to be voters who might consider a third candidate?” Is it a party? “
Additionally, she believes that motivating these disaffected Pennsylvanians to support candidates, or convincing certain demographics to vote for a third party or not vote at all, He added that there is almost no doubt that he will become a focal point of the Biden and Trump campaigns in the lead-up to the summer and hotly contested general election.
“I don't think there's any precedent in terms of who's going to be mobilized,” said Sweet Cushman, a poll worker who spoke with voters Tuesday. “There's a lot of time and a lot of things can happen.”
Bruce Siwe is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network's Pennsylvania Capital Bureau. Contact him at bsiwy@gannett.com or @BruceSiwy on X.
