It's no wonder the polling places seemed emptier than usual on Tuesday.
This week's primaries rank among the sleepiest in recent memory during a presidential election year in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties.
This is the first time since 2012 that counties saw a drop in primary turnout when a White House candidate was also on the ballot.
Voter turnout in Allegheny County was about 32% as of Wednesday, with only a few precincts left to be counted. This is lower than during the 2020 primary. Westmoreland County also did not exceed 30%, which was also lower than four years ago.
Political experts and party leaders blamed the low turnout on a lack of competitiveness at the top of the polls.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump were already considered favorites by Tuesday, with only one candidate from each party in the state's Senate race.
Lou Irwin, a political science professor at Duquesne University, said that although the primaries were largely lackluster, there were still some useful lessons, including encouraging signs for Democrats, challenges ahead for Republicans, and interesting protest votes against Biden and Trump. He said that there is.
But Irwin added that these dynamics will change dramatically as the general election approaches in November.
“I think the low turnout was because of how few races were attracting attention,” Irwin said. “I don't think this is indicative of what's going to happen in the fall.”
Discrepancy in voter turnout
In 2012, voter turnout in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties was anemic, at about 20% in both counties.
This was the last time the Democratic Party had a sitting member of Congress in the White House.
The difference between 2012 and this year is that local Democrats had higher turnout than Republicans on Tuesday, which Irwin said is a bit unusual.
Irwin said primary turnout is typically higher when the president is the leader of the opposition.
Local Republican turnout was higher than Democratic turnout in the 2012 spring election.
In 2012, when Democrat Barack Obama was president, more than 26% of Republicans in Allegheny County voted in the primary, while less than 20% of Democrats turned out. In Westmoreland County, 27% of Republicans voted, compared to 19% of Democrats.
This year, Democrats turned out about 33% of the party's registered voters in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties, while Republicans in Allegheny County turned out 26% of registered voters. Republican turnout in Westmoreland reached 28%.
“It's clear that the Democratic base remains more enthusiastic than the Republican base,” Irwin said, adding that since the U.S. Supreme Court's conservative majority overturned Roe V. Wade in June 2022, , noted that Democratic turnout is rising.
She said abortion rights keep voters highly motivated in the Pittsburgh area and across the state.
However, local Republicans rejected the idea. They blamed low turnout on the lack of competitive Republican primaries.
Westmoreland County Republican Committee Chairman Bill Bretz said he expected low turnout.
“I'm confident that if we had had a primary, turnout would have been much higher,” Bretz said.
Sam DeMarco, chairman of the Allegheny County Republican Committee, said the fact that Trump and Republican U.S. Senate candidate David McCormick are potential candidates was a big factor in the drop in Republican turnout.
DeMarco also pointed to the lack of competitive legislative races in the region and said there are virtually no high-profile races for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democrats were voting in contentious races in the 12th and 14th Congressional Districts.
Westmoreland County Democratic Party Chairwoman Michelle McFall said local legislative primaries boosted Democratic turnout a bit, but not as much as they would in contested presidential or U.S. Senate primaries. .
Sam Hens Greco, chairman of the Allegheny County Democratic Committee, said Democrats had more races than Republicans, but there were only four local races in Allegheny County.
Hens-Greco noted that local Democratic turnout still exceeds Republican turnout and expects turnout to increase in November's election.
protest vote
Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump won an overwhelming majority of their respective voters, but the incumbent outperformed his predecessor.
Mr. Biden won more than 95% of the state's votes and received about 928,000 votes, more than 88% of Pennsylvania's Democratic voters. Trump received more than 790,000 votes, or 82% of Republicans.
Irwin said each candidate also received a significant number of protest votes.
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley received about 157,000 votes statewide, despite withdrawing from the race nearly two months ago.
Haley received about 4,500 votes in Westmoreland County and more than 12,700 votes in Allegheny County. She won several Republican districts in Pittsburgh and overperformed in dozens of districts in the county's North and South Hills.
DeMarco said he expects turnout to increase once voters realize more is being asked of them.
“November is the moment. They will recognize that it's time for change in the White House at a time when most people say we're headed in the wrong direction as a country,” DeMarco said. He said this, citing a public opinion poll. I'm dissatisfied.
Biden also incited a significant number of protest voters.
Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips ended his presidential bid in March, around the same time as Haley, but still received more than 68,000 votes in the Democratic primary.
There was also an “irresponsible” write-in campaign protesting Biden's policies regarding Israel.
It's unclear how many of these write-in votes are part of a “non-commitment” campaign because counties don't release specific information about write-in votes unless they have a chance to win. Coordinated write campaigns typically receive the majority, but not all, of total writes.
Irwin said it was notable that there were tens of thousands fewer protest votes against Mr. Biden than against Mr. Trump.
Adding mail-in
The use of mail-in voting increased in the primary election.
Democrats still have an advantage in mail-in voting. Approximately 46% of primary votes in Allegheny County were by mail, an increase of 5% compared to 2022. More than 48% of his Westmoreland County Democrats voted by mail this year.
Only about 15% of Westmoreland County Republicans voted by mail. About 23% of Allegheny County Republicans voted by mail, up from 14% in 2022.
DeMarco praised the increase and said efforts to get more local Republicans to vote by mail are paying off. He said it's nice to see Republicans gain some support over Democrats, but they're still short of his own goal of at least 35%.
Democrats are also confident they can keep pace with Republicans in growth in the use of mail-in voting.
Nearly 20,000 voters in Allegheny County applied for mail-in ballots but did not return them. Hens-Greco said it's a big opportunity for Democrats to increase turnout.
Staff writer Rich Cholodofsky contributed to this report.
Ryan Deto is a TribLive reporter covering politics, Pittsburgh and Allegheny County news. The California Bay Area native joined the Tribe in 2022 after covering Pittsburgh for more than six years at Pittsburgh City Paper, including serving as managing editor. Contact him at rdeto@triblive.com.
