American University Professor Alan RichtmanThe president, who has correctly chosen the winner in nine of the past 10 presidential elections, said “a lot of things are going to go wrong” for the president. joe biden “Losing” to former president donald trump During an interview in November guardian It was released last Friday (April 26th).
The 77-year-old Richman, who has accurately predicted every presidential election since 1984 except for 2000, said that although no official election has yet occurred, he said, “Whether the incumbent party's candidate is the incumbent president or not. ” recognizes 13 keys to the White House's methodology. He said there is no serious contest for the incumbent party's nomination after Biden easily won the Democratic primary.
“It’s two keys away from the top,” Lichtman said. “That means six more keys would have to fall to predict his loss. A lot of things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose.”
A Quinnipiac poll released last Wednesday (April 24) recently reported that Biden has an advantage over Trump, with the two tied. Additionally, the current president holds a 51% to 48% lead in direct polling among registered voters, and a 53% to 47% lead when counting only respondents who said they plan to vote in 2024. It is also reported that November's presidential election, according to the latest Marist/PBS NewsHour poll released Monday (April 22).
The poll was released a day after NBC News' latest poll revealed independent presidential candidates. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. It actually hindered Trump's support more than Biden's. In a head-to-head race, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by a margin of 46% to 44%, but Mr. Biden (39%) leads Mr. Trump (37%) and Mr. Kennedy (13%). Jill Stein (3%) and cornel west (2%) if all candidates are considered options, according to NBC News.
Additionally, 15% of respondents who chose Trump in the first in-person vote chose Kennedy instead in the five-way vote, and 7% of respondents who initially chose Biden chose Kennedy instead in the expanded poll. .
Early this month, fox news According to polls, the two candidates are in close races in four key battleground states. The poll, which polled 1,100 registered voters from April 11 to 16, found the candidates tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump had a slight advantage in Georgia and Michigan. However, both were within sampling error.
The survey also found that Trump “is winning the same or better than he did in 2020 in a two-way race, but Biden has not matched that number,” adding, “I support Biden's job performance. At least 10 points more voters disapprove than approve.” However, 10% of respondents who said they didn't approve of Biden's job performance still support him in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, and Biden remains ahead of the poll. Immigration and economic topics.
a new york times A Siena College poll released in November 2023 found Trump with a 52% to 41% lead in Nevada, a 49% to 44% lead in Georgia, and a 49% to 44% lead in Arizona. , which reportedly led Biden by a 48% to 43% margin. In Michigan, the margin is hers 48% to 44%, and in Pennsylvania she is 48% to 44%. At the time, Biden reportedly held a 47% to 45% lead over Trump in Wisconsin.
Latest new york timesA Siena College poll released last Saturday (April 13) also showed early polling showing Trump with a 47% to 46% lead.
