The 2024 presidential election remains extremely close between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
Evan Vucci/Associated Press.Eduardo Muñoz/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
hide caption
toggle caption
Evan Vucci/Associated Press.Eduardo Muñoz/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
The 2024 presidential election remains extremely close between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
Evan Vucci/Associated Press.Eduardo Muñoz/Pool/AFP via Getty Images
The fear factor is real in America, but Democrats and Republicans fear for the country's future for a variety of reasons, a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.
They also have very different ideas about what should be taught to the children who will inherit their future.
Looking ahead to this year's presidential election, the study also found significant shifts in key voter groups along generational, racial, and educational lines.
It also considered how third-party candidates or so-called “double haters” who have negative reviews of both President Biden and former President Donald Trump could affect the race.
Finally, as Trump continues to battle dozens of criminal charges and legal troubles, we've found that the number of Republicans who believe he has done something unethical has skyrocketed. .
Fascism and extremism vs. lack of values and weakening
Democrats overwhelmingly said the “Golden Rule,” or teaching children to treat others as they would like to be treated, is the most important value to teach children. Going back even further, there were statements like “Education is the key to success'' and “Be happy and follow your dreams.''
Democrats are most concerned about the rise of extremism and fascism, outweighing everything else by a wide margin.
Republicans, on the other hand, argued that instilling in children faith in God, teaching them that hard work and discipline pays off, and adhering to the “Golden Rule” is paramount.
Their biggest concerns about this country were its lack of values and its weakening as a nation.
Trump's trial has exhausted Republicans, many of whom see the former president as having done something wrong.
Fewer than half of respondents said they were closely following Trump's hush money trial in New York, but with the Republican primaries over and Trump's continuing legal troubles, Republicans are A majority now say they believe Mr. Trump has done something wrong, whether unethical or illegal.
The percentage of Republicans who say President Trump has acted unethically has increased 12 points since February, from 34% to 46%. Still, only 8% of Republicans think he did something illegal, compared with nearly half of all respondents (47%).
A whopping 77% of respondents believe Trump has done something illegal or at least unethical, and a majority believe the investigation into his conduct was fair.
Since 2020, major changes have occurred in terms of age, race, and education
Looking at the presidential election, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are virtually tied among registered voters, with 50% for Mr. Biden and 48% for Mr. Trump. Among those who said they would definitely vote in November, Biden's lead grew to 5 points, 52% to 47%.Surveys show that Biden has a positive relationship with groups who say they are likely or definitely will vote. — Especially older voters and college-educated whites.
It may seem like the same old story. His two big-name candidates, who were expected to have close races, are now in close races. But the top numbers hide important changes occurring by age, race, and education.
Below are some key findings.
Year
- According to exit polls, Trump won voters over 45 in 2020, but now Biden is winning with a 12-point lead over the oldest voters. This is unusual because older voters have traditionally been Republican.
- In 2020, Biden won double-digit votes among voters under 45, but now Trump and Biden are tied in that group. Biden is having a particularly difficult time with the youngest voters, with only a 2-point lead over Gen Z/millennials between the ages of 18 and 43. However, in 2020, they won the 18-29 age group by 24 points and the 30-44 age group by 6 points.
- Biden's approval rating among respondents ages 18 to 29 was just 31%, 10 points lower than his overall approval rating of 41%.
race and education
- Biden won nonwhite voters by a 45-point margin in 2020, but that number is now half that.
- He is doing several points better with white voters than he was in 2020, which can be largely attributed to college-educated whites.
- In 2020, Biden won the white college-educated woman by a nine-point margin. The poll shows Biden with a 17 point lead over white women.
- In 2020, Mr. Trump won the white man with a college degree by 3 points, but now Mr. Biden has a 10-point lead.
“Double Hater” is the core of RFK Junior’s support
Polls show it is unclear which candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is likely to garner more support. The poll shows he receives a little more from Biden than Trump.
Biden's 2-point lead with all adults and his 5-point lead with registered voters disappears when RFK Jr. and others are taken into account. RFK Jr. received 11% of the vote, which is comparable to how many votes he has received on average in previous Marist polls and other surveys.
It is no secret that there is widespread cynicism and dissatisfaction among many voters. Respondents highlighted the country's partisan nature, saying the two men essentially represent equal threats to democracy and that a majority dislikes both.
The survey found that 56% have an unfavorable opinion of Trump and 54% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden. That's the well RFK Jr. is drawing from.
In the combination of Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump, and Mr. RFK Jr., Mr. RFK Jr. received a 31% approval rating among “double haters,” who have unfavorable ratings for both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Another 31% of “double haters” who were forced to make this choice chose Trump, while only 20% sided with Biden.
This is a big warning sign for Biden, as he did well against “double haters” in 2020, according to the Democratic pollster. In the case of Biden vs. Trump, the two are statistically tied with their peers, with 46% supporting Trump and 45% supporting Biden.
Among other groups, RFK Jr. is most popular among independent women (22%), independents overall (17%), Westerners (15%), and parents of children under 18. (14%) are white women with college degrees. (14%), under 45 (13%), Gen Z/Millennials.
The survey of 1,199 adults was conducted April 22-25 by the Marist Institute of Public Opinion. The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
