Alan Lichtman, a renowned professor of history at American University, made a name for himself through one extraordinary talent. He has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of his last ten presidential elections using a model he invented known as the 13-key. .
The only election he predicted incorrectly was the 2000 presidential election, which he claims was the correct choice, and claims that the 2000 presidential election was stolen, choosing Al Gore over George Bush. .
13 The key method was created in collaboration with Russian seismologist Vladimir Kaylis Borok. The two adapted a model used to predict earthquakes to better understand the American political realm.
According to the American University website, the 13 keys are:
- Party Mission: After the midterm elections, incumbent parties hold more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the last midterm election.
- Contest: There is no full-fledged contest for the incumbent party's nomination.
- Incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is the incumbent president.
- Third parties: There are no significant third parties or independent campaigns.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election period.
- Long-term economy: The real economic growth rate per capita in the current period is equal to or higher than the average growth rate of the past two periods.
- Policy changes: The current administration will bring major changes to national policy.
- Social unrest: There will be no continued social unrest during the term.
- Scandals: The current administration is not tainted by any major scandals.
- Diplomatic and military failures: The current government has not experienced any major diplomatic or military failures.
- Diplomatic/Military Success: The incumbent government achieves great success in diplomatic or military affairs.
- Charisma of the incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger Charisma: Challenger party candidates are not charismatic or national heroes.
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Lichtman doesn't plan to release his official forecast until August, but he thinks Joe Biden has the lead for now.
“A lot of things will have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian.
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Maya Homan is USA TODAY's 2024 Elections Fellow, focusing on Georgia politics. Follow her on X (formerly Twitter) as @MayaHoman.
