Global trade and immigration at stake in Panama presidential vote

CNN
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Panama, a Central American nation at the crossroads of international trade and migration, will elect a new president on Sunday after a campaign season mired in legal uncertainty.

“This is a very important election, the most important election since the 1989 invasion of the United States,” said Daniel Zovatto, a global fellow in the Latin America Program at the Wilson Center think tank.

“The situation is very complex and whoever is elected as the next president will have an agenda full of issues in a country that is highly polarized and experiencing a lot of political tension and uncertainty. “There will be,” he added.

At stake is the financial management of the country of 4.4 million people, which is facing high inflation and economic stagnation and widespread anxiety. Analysts say access to water will also play a big role in voters' attitudes. Drought, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon, has left some regions lacking access to potable water and reduced capacity in the Panama Canal, the country's mainstay of GDP.

Once the region's GDP leader, Panama's economy has slowed dramatically in recent years, with the IMF forecasting GDP growth of just 2.5% this year, down from 7.3% last year. In March, credit rating agency Fitch downgraded Panama's rating to junk status, citing “financial and governance challenges” following a controversial decision to close the country's largest mine last year.

Among the leading candidates, right-wing former public security minister José Raúl Mulino has promised to return the country to its economic heyday and tackle high unemployment with a plan to encourage private sector employment with government funds.

More controversially, Mulino has also vowed to close the dangerous jungle Darien Gap, which begins in Panama and is a major highway for migrants heading to the United States. The phenomenon is accelerating political turmoil in the United States as Americans prepare. In preparation for this fall's presidential election.

According to the Panamanian government, more than 500,000 migrants, mainly from Venezuela, will cross the Darien Valley in 2023, double the amount recorded in 2022. The United States has been working for months with officials in Panama and Colombia, where the jungle ends. , attempts a root shutdown.

Mr. Mulino did not say how he would enforce the jungle closure on migrants, leading some analysts to question whether this would deter migration or simply encourage new routes. ” states the Association of American States/Council of the Americas report.

A recent Gallup poll found that corruption is the top concern for Panamanian voters heading to the polls, followed by unemployment, inadequate health care and the cost of living.

The case of former President Ricardo Martinelli, who was disqualified from running for office by a court due to past corruption convictions, stands out.

Martinelli was convicted last year of money laundering in the so-called “New Business” corruption scandal and sentenced to more than 10 years in prison.

According to the country's Public Ministry, the case involves a publishing group that was acquired with funds obtained from irregularly processed state contracts. Martinelli maintains his innocence and is currently being protected by local authorities at the Nicaraguan embassy in Panama City, where Nicaraguan authorities have granted him asylum.

Martinelli, once considered the favorite to win this year's presidential election, was disqualified from running in March by Panama's Electoral Court because of his conviction and sentencing. Mulino, who had been Martinelli's running mate, then took over the goal party ticket.

However, Mulino's candidacy was also challenged and was subject to a judicial review days before the election, creating uncertainty in the race. On Friday, the country's highest court ruled that Mulino's candidacy was constitutional and could proceed.

There are seven other presidential candidates, including current vice president José Gabriel Carrizo, former president Martín Torrijos, and Romulo Lu, another former minister under Martinelli. Panama has no presidential runoff and no minimum threshold for victory, so the eventual winner could win with far less support than a majority of voters.

Martinelli has endorsed Mulino, even releasing a campaign video from inside the Nicaraguan embassy.

Mr. Mulino, on the other hand, is widely seen as inheriting Mr. Martinelli's public support and reflecting a plan to revive the president's policies, which are “mainly remembered for economic growth and poverty reduction, “It resonates with voters facing inflation and unemployment,” America's Quarterly wrote. .