As a general rule, you shouldn't rely on just one presidential poll.
The 2024 election is almost six months away, and it all starts with the verdict. donald trumpUnforeseen events from the hush money trial to the national championships could have an impact.
That said, there is still valuable information that can be gleaned from public opinion polls, especially those that focus on swing states and key demographic groups.
But here's what you need to know about the New York Times-Siena poll released Monday, which prompted many questions from Democrats concerned about Trump's lead in five key states. Here is a short list of:
Polls are built on assumptions. A poll is a snapshot of the current opinions of voters surveyed by a polling organization. think It is likely to come up in the next election. In this case, the pollster predicts that voters who did not cast a ballot in 2020 will account for 18% of voters in 2024. Personally, I think this is too high and may be the main reason why President Trump is doing so well. Polls show Trump won Nevada by an astonishing 12 points. Biden won the state in 2020, and a Democratic senator was re-elected in 2022. If my political instincts dictated anything, I would say that's not going to happen.
Respondents were generally satisfied. Usually when you see an incumbent trailing in the polls, it means Americans are unhappy. But in a New York Times/Siena poll, an astonishing 74% of respondents said they were satisfied with how their lives were going. This suggests voters are not looking for major changes. The Biden campaign has spent six months worth of TV ads, emails, social media posts and campaign events to spread its message and remind people of how chaotic the Trump years were.
Biden still has a chance to win back support. Trump won the majority of those who voted for him in 2020, and about 7% of Biden supporters. But people who don't like Trump aren't going to change their minds. Biden still has the opportunity to talk to his former supporters, who are disproportionately young and people of color, about what he has accomplished and what more he can do for them in his second term. has been done. It's much easier to get someone to vote for you again than it is to convert a former critic.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remains a wild card. Third-party candidates have the greatest support among young voters and independents, two groups that supported Biden in 2020. The Biden campaign will need to continue emphasizing Kennedy's controversial and dangerous views on topics such as vaccines and insisting on the need for votes. For him, it's a vote for Trump's second term. Fortunately for the president's team, about 60% of Kennedy supporters polled said they would be willing to vote for someone else, suggesting they were still open-minded. There is.
Biden still has a chance. Even with polls that appear to make some questionable assumptions, the race remains likely to be won by Biden. The fact that former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley continues to receive about 20% of the vote in the Republican primary months after leaving office suggests that Trump is having trouble consolidating Republican support. Suggests. Biden also has the advantage of running a disciplined and well-funded campaign, undistracted by legal issues, in contrast to Trump. While this poll may be good news for Trump at this point, Biden is still well positioned to win re-election.
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This article originally appeared on MSNBC.com
