Politically speaking, the Biden and Trump campaigns appear to be suffering from very similar illnesses. Six months have passed since the election, and both parties are operating under the mistaken belief that there is no way they will lose. this Man. ” This is a narrative that has produced a presidential campaign that has a particularly personal tone, alienating voters, especially independents.
It also generates a significant portion of voters who have negative views of both candidates. The key question is what this important group of voters will make, given that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have approval ratings of about 60 percent. According to the latest Winning the Issues survey (April 27-29), that number is nearly 70% among independents.
22% of voters have a negative view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump, and 2016 election exit polls show 18% have a negative view of both Hillary Clinton and Trump. This is my view, and it exceeds this. Among independents, 41% said they were unfavorable to both candidates, up from 27% in the 2016 exit poll.
Given that independents made up 26% of voters at the presidential level in 2020, the 41% figure could represent about 11% of voters in 2024. This means the election could be decided by voters unfavorable to both candidates.
Clearly, both candidates have serious problems with disadvantaged voters, and how they deal with that disadvantage will be a deciding factor.
First, what Biden doesn't understand is that his biggest challenger is not Donald Trump. That's what he does as president. Add to that the fact that the Biden team has lost sight of how they won in 2020 and doesn't understand why they're in the predicament they're in. For three years, the Biden White House has been focused only on bases. Joe Biden, the moderate centrist who unified the country during the 2020 campaign, has all but disappeared.
Instead, Mr. Biden is governing from the left, resulting in a 38% approval rating for his appointment and a 55% disapproval rating, according to the latest Solving Problems poll. Among independents, the ratio is 27% to 62%.
Even worse, when it comes to the president personally, only 39 percent of voters currently view him favorably. 59% view him negatively. Among independents, the percentage is skewed at 29%/67%.
Whether Biden wants to believe the polls or not, it's clear that people are dissatisfied with his presidency.
Only 25% of voters say the country is heading in the right direction, while 66% say the country is heading down a hugely wrong path. The economy/inflation is the top issue for 38% of voters, with 60% believing it is getting worse compared to just 16% who think it is getting better. is similarly problematic.
Independents pose a tougher challenge for Biden, who won by 13 points in 2020, according to exit polls. This was the largest margin of victory for a major party presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan vs. Walter Mondale in 1984. Simply put, independent voters are the reason Biden won the election. But two recent surveys show that his focus on his base has led to major shifts in this key group of voters.
At the national level, the latest Morning Consult poll (May 10-12) shows Trump leading by 4 points among independents, which is a 17 point difference (Biden +13 to Biden -4). Become. Turning to key battleground states, a recent NYT/Siena poll of battleground states also showed significant movement among independents. In these states, there was a noticeable shift in support for Trump among independents (Arizona +14, Georgia +21, Nevada +26). Among Rust Belt states, Michigan was +13, Wisconsin was +16 and Pennsylvania was +17.
Making matters even more difficult for Biden, the “Winning Issues” poll found that 16% of independents said the country was headed in the right direction, while 75% said it was headed in the wrong direction. His supporters disapprove of how he is handling his job as president by a margin of 27% to 62%.
Forty percent of independents say the economy and inflation are their biggest problems, and 61% of them think inflation is getting worse. Biden is trying to campaign on something other than the economy, but it's hard to tell voters he's focused on the wrong issues, especially food issues.
As Biden tries to control voters' perceptions of the economy, he says, “Today, we… [the United States] We have the strongest economy in the world,” he says, only exacerbating the credibility problem. The problem with this statement is that only 30 percent of voters believe it, while 58 percent do not. His credibility goes nowhere when he claims he inherited a 9 percent inflation rate.
Given their current view of the economy, voters have more confidence in Republicans than Democrats to handle the economy by a margin of 51% to 37% and inflation by a margin of 52% to 34%. It has said.
But before the Trump campaign starts uncorking the champagne, it needs to ask itself some difficult questions. Why is this race still so close, even though Biden is doing so poorly in polls on voters' most important issues? Why is President Trump only leading by about 1 point nationally? ?
Looking at the Real Clear Politics average, Mr. Biden's job approval rating (39.5%) so far during his presidency is higher than Mr. Trump (45.6%), Mr. Obama (48.3%), and Mr. George W. Bush (45.6%). %). One explanation is President Trump's poor brand image, which has dogged him since 2015 and now has a 39%/58% favorable/unfavorable rating, according to the “Winning the Issues” survey. It has become. Among independents, this falls to 28%/69%.
Ultimately, for both candidates, the name of the game is winning the economic argument. Trump has the advantage of voters' positive views of the economy during his pre-pandemic presidential term, in contrast to Biden's inflation, which has had a destabilizing effect on the economy. . But to combat brand image issues and win the debate, Trump will need to avoid Biden's mistakes and reach beyond the Republican base by defining a broader vision for the center-right future. There is.
The outcome of this election may come down to the 41% of independents who have a negative view of both candidates. Candidates who can increase their favorability ratings increase their chances of winning a second term.
David Winston is president of The Winston Group and a longtime adviser to Congressional Republicans. He previously served as planning director for Chairman Newt Gingrich. He advises Fortune 100 companies, foundations, and nonprofit organizations on strategic planning and public policy issues, and also serves as an elections analyst for CBS News.
