Before we dive into this week's new presidential election polling data that likely saw a spike in antacid sales in Democratic districts, broadly speaking, the Biden vs. Trump battle for public support remains very close. It is worth emphasizing up front that it is remarkably static.A quick look at the trend lines of voting aggregators 538 and true transparent politics This makes it clear that the national numbers haven't changed much and haven't changed for months.
But as we all know, national trend lines do not decide American presidential elections. Thousands of goobers in dozens of ZIP codes in a handful of states are doing so.And the latest article from The New York Times/Siena poll Biden World is reaching for Pepto as it gains registered voters in six key battleground states this week.
The Times-Siena poll is, as the Bulwark so aptly put it, “devastating news.” framed it, not because the direct polls in battleground states favor Trump (though they do), but because they seem to suggest that nothing Biden is doing is having any effect.As Times Poll Master Nate Cohn Observesince our last poll in the battleground state six months ago, even as the stock market has soared, President Trump is on trial, and the Biden campaign has begun spending tens of millions of dollars on advertising in these states. , that number has hardly changed.
voteIt's not something you can predict six months before an election. Concerns As difficult as it is to do good poll sampling these days, consistent methods over time can still help track trends in public opinion.
But the most depressing thing I've seen this month isn't the brutal Times poll, but rather the woefully weak head-to-head poll. interview Grandpa Joe appeared with Erin Burnett on CNN last week. True believers in the Biden campaign may have watched that interview (only 14 minutes long) and thought, “Well, that wasn't bad, there was plenty of consistency and no obvious gaffes.” What I saw was a Nerf level softball interview. Burnett repeatedly helped Biden finish his thoughts by asking boring questions and avoiding follow-up calls. It's like chatting with an elderly relative who is having a hard time putting up with a boring job. conversation.
The CNN interview focused on the economy. When Burnett asked Biden if time was running out to change voters' perceptions of the economic downturn, Biden replied: Take a look at the Michigan study. Sixty-five percent of Americans consider themselves to be in good financial shape. They think that the state of this country is not good. They are in good condition personally. ”
Biden is correct in his negative view of the nation's economy. crosstab The Times-Siena poll provides clear (some might say frightening) evidence. When asked about their current financial situation, only 45% Democratic Party In battleground states, 54% said it was “excellent” or “good,” while 54% said it was “fair” or “poor.” 93% of Republicans say the economy is bad, but 93% of Republicans would rate Oxygen negatively if they thought Joe Biden had anything to do with Oxygen, so blow that away. You can do it too.
Woe to the independents. A shockingly only 16% believe their financial situation is good or excellent. Of course, most people who tell pollsters they are independent are not really independent, and when asked, three-quarters admit to being either red or blue. There is.But if we believe the conventional wisdom (let's be honest, sometimes teeth (Right) Moderates in battleground states will tilt this election, and given that 84% of self-proclaimed independents in these states see the economy as somewhere between bad and abhorrent, it's dire. The situation is no exaggeration.
So what about Biden's claim that this macroeconomic cynicism masks personal optimism, that voters think they are “personally in good shape?” His casual mention of the “Michigan Study” is likely referring to the University of Michigan. consumer sentiment index, a widely followed monthly indicator that surveys how consumers feel about their finances and the economy as a whole. Michigan's numbers (currently in the mid-60s) are a normalized statistical measure, not a percentage measure of anything, so it's not clear where Biden came up with his 65% good state claim. do not have.
Biden's timing was extremely poor. In an interview with CNN, he cited Michigan's index as evidence of positive consumer sentiment, and two days later released the May index. It came out This marked a significant decline to the lowest level in six months.And by the way, this decline is bipartisan and is accompanied by a marked decline in economic optimism share It received support from Democrats, Republicans and independents alike.
When the going gets tough, tough people blame the messenger. “The polling data has been wrong all along,” Biden told CNN's Barnett (“told” is a euphemism for “tweeted”), adding, “We have the strongest economy in the world. ” he added. (Actually, he says “of course in the world” for emphasis.) Biden is confident that the polls are correct, that they accurately reflect the perception that the economy is weak, and that we have a strong macroeconomic I seem to have been slow to realize that it's entirely possible to maintain . Many measures. I think he actually gets it, but he can't argue it convincingly or forcefully.
This would be a good place to make the necessary recognition that polling six months before an election is not predictive, but does reveal what respondents think now.And for all understanding Concerns As difficult as it is to do good poll sampling these days, consistent (and expensive) methods over time like Times/Siena can still be useful for tracking trends in public opinion. . The problem is not that Trump has a head-to-head lead. It's that Biden hasn't changed his perception of his ability to handle the economy and much else.
CNN plans first presidential debate between Biden and Trump for June 27th in Atlanta
Focusing on the economy keeps us from overlooking the other nonsense Biden spouted in his CNN interview. For example, he called AI “the most important technological development in human history.” I think he may have a point, even if AI ends up causing the complete destruction of civilization (as some people fear). Otherwise, I think printing presses, electricity, optics, semiconductors, and antibiotics (not to mention Terro's liquid ant bait) might be looking for information edgewise.
Suspicions that Biden was a viable candidate dominated the news cycle for a while last fall and winter, as well as widespread speculation (hopes, prayers) that perhaps Jill would persuade Biden to resign. ) is popular? His bombastic State of the Union address ended it all, with an unrelenting primary schedule and the support of a party establishment that refused to accept even the concept of a Democratic nomination contest.
Now, with less than six months until November, political pundits are full of ideas about how Biden might emerge from this race. For example, here's a quote from the venerable Frank Bruni of the Times, a personal favorite of mine, the other day: “He needs to step things up to defend his record more vigorously, make his case for a second term more concrete, and exert more power.” Him and Trump We will communicate our differences more effectively.”
Bruni may be right that Biden “needs” to do these things, but polls in battleground states show that his record is not resonating with the very voters he is trying to reach. That's clear, and the CNN interview serves as a stark reminder of what Biden is lacking. The ability to project strength and vitality. The agreement between Biden and Trump for a late June debate that came out of nowhere on Wednesday created an unexpected early opportunity to dispel doubts about power and momentum.Otherwise, Biden World It relies on immovable objects that it cannot control: an unfettered adversary that may self-destruct, and a Fed that may find a way to cut interest rates. I think either is fine. Tick-tock.
