I have bad news. Americans are voting politically to death.
Too many people are standing with their mouths open in front of the fire hose of “Presidential Poll News''. They're getting more nauseous and bloated and frankly I think it's affecting their brains.
As of mid-May, there are only three things we can say with certainty about the November presidential election.
Donald Trump might win.
Joe Biden might win.
RFK Jr. will never win.
Polls are starting for the new president, and everyone is buzzing!
That's literally it. Anyone who claims otherwise is promoting nonsense, and anyone who uses polling data to claim anything with even the slightest degree of certainty is a fool.
And yet… there are so many fools.
Thus the big liberal weirdo, and the accompanying MAGA “Yipeee!” – on a recent series of battleground state investigations by the New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer. According to the Times, the poll found that “Mr. Trump has a lead in a head-to-head race against Mr. Biden among registered voters in five of the six major states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. It became clear.” Biden led among registered voters in the only battleground state, Wisconsin. ”
Lying Trump:Trump supporters believe all his lies. But if he were a real alpha male, he'd tell a bigger lie.
If you're a Biden supporter or a Trump hater, that naturally falls into the “bad” category.
But I write this out loud to the various Nostradamis behind you who are busily writing your 23rd “Get Ready for Trump Victory” Substack post. This is a series of polls taken almost six months before the election, polls are only a snapshot of a particular moment in time, and about a million things could change by the time the first vote is cast.
Polls are useless to the average voter and are best ignored
The only people in America who should be worried or paying attention to polls right now are those working for the Biden and Trump campaigns. Polls provide useful data about your strengths, weaknesses, and which voters you should target.
For others, it's empty calories that feed our Sisyphean desire to predict the future. We can't wait until the election results are in and the contentious race is called. We have to know now who wins. I'm telling you now!
So aggressive news organizations continue to report poll after poll and poll after poll, looking forward to the chaos Trump will bring and the old-fashioned things Biden might say. There is. It wasn't so much political reporting on horse racing as it was gleefully creating a damn crowd.
A lot can change between now and the election.
And it's all — I'm sorry to all media outlets, including my own — to no avail.
Aside from the potential for polls to be inaccurate in an era when young people are hard to reach and people generally don't want to talk to anyone, polling is a science, but it's not perfect. Here are some things: The outcome of the presidential election between now and November could easily change.
- As you may know, Biden and Trump have been on the rise over the years. One awkward fall or one health emergency on his part could change the shape of the race, although both are outside the realm of possibility.
- It's also possible that Trump could suddenly be convicted of a felony, or that more damaging evidence could emerge from Trump's numerous other criminal cases. His ongoing trial in New York City over election interference stemming from hush money payments to adult film stars is not going well. A conviction is by no means certain, but it is not surprising. No matter what he and his supporters say, a felony conviction would absolutely hurt his campaign.
- For Biden, skyrocketing food and gas prices could spell disaster. Many voters pay little attention to the nuances of candidates and base their decisions on how they feel in the weeks and days before voting. The atmosphere, however foolish, could ruin the president's chances.
From abortion rights to debates to the Gaza war, everything is in flux.
- Even after Roe v. Wade was overturned, abortion rights remain an important issue. Abortion-related ballot measures are emerging in many states, and it is unclear how they will affect turnout or the presidential vote. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the use of the abortion drug mifepristone, expected next month, could further confuse matters.
- The Israeli-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip, which has infuriated some in Biden's Democratic base, could end, or it could get worse.
- Two presidential debates are scheduled. Either, or both, voters may be reminded of Trump's chaotic personality and authoritarian rhetoric. Or Biden, who is known to be at a loss for words, could undermine his chances of victory and revive concerns about his age.
- Trump could choose a complete lunatic as his running mate.
Stop wasting your time worrying about polls and focus on what's important
The point is, and for Pete's sake, it's a hell of a May, but what happens in the next few months is up to no one, not your brilliant TV mogul or savvy data guy. It means he doesn't even know.
I'm a liberal and I despise President Trump. But do you think Biden is on his way to victory? Absolutely not.
I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Trump won, since a large portion of the population seems to have grown averse to reality.
Trump's vice presidential candidate?Who would be stupid enough to be Donald Trump's vice president?
The only thing I'm sure of is that every minute spent by people who care about the candidates stressing about and touting polling data is wasted.
Given the stakes of this election, liberals, conservatives, anti-Trumpers and others should not waste their time.
Please ignore the vote. they are stupid We don't have a crystal ball and can't predict the future.
But we can take actions that give us a fighting chance to see the future we want. And there's nothing stupid about it.
Follow USA TODAY columnist Rex Hupke on X (formerly Twitter). @RexHuppke and Facebook facebook.com/RexIsAJerk
