PHOENIX — Donald Trump has more support than Joe Biden in Arizona ahead of the 2024 presidential election, according to a poll released Wednesday.
A Noble Predictive Insights (NPI) poll shows Trump with 44% and Biden with 41%, leaving 15% of likely voters undecided.
NPI founder Mike Noble said Trump's lead was less due to the former president and more to do with Biden not regaining the same level of support as in 2020.
“In 2020, Biden argued that he would be the president who would restore capacity and confidence and return to normalcy in a country struggling with a pandemic and bitter partisan conflict,” Noble said. “The problem with Mr. Biden? COVID-19 is gone, but normality is not back.”
“Americans are worried about inflation and immigration, which is costing him in key battleground states like Arizona.”
Two national websites that track polls and publish the latest averages, FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, have Mr. Trump leading Mr. Biden by about 4 percentage points.
What impact will third-party candidates have in the 2024 Arizona presidential election?
NPI also asked voters who they would choose if third-party candidates entered the election.
With several third-party candidates on the ballot, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein, Mr. Trump's lead jumped to 7 points (43% to 36% for Mr. Biden).
According to opinion polls, Kennedy's approval rating in Arizona is 10%.
“Democrats are not excited about Biden running again, and the high support for RFK Jr. indicates that many Democrats, independents, and young voters are willing to leave Biden behind and support RFK Jr. “This proves that,” Noble said. “The 2024 election will depend on whether Biden can win back those voters.”
How was the Arizona presidential poll conducted?
The online opt-in survey panel was conducted May 7-14 among a statewide sample of registered voters.
The size was 1,003 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
KTAR News 92.3 FM's Jim Cross contributed to this report.
