As President Donald Trump's “hush money” trial in New York City nears its end, with a verdict expected just after Memorial Day, a long-simmering question about how Trump's legal situation will affect the presidential election may soon be answered.
Importantly, this will almost certainly be the only case to reach a verdict before the election, meaning how the jury decides will have unique implications.
Most obviously, if a jury finds Trump guilty, the front-runner for president of the United States will be a convicted felon, and voters will have to decide whether this disqualifies him from office.
That said, if Democrats are hoping that a conviction would make Trump unelectable, they are likely to be disappointed, because there are two important reasons why a conviction is unlikely to work against Trump and may actually work in the former president's favor.
The first reason is that, as polling by my firm, Sean Cooperman Research, has made clear, many Americans don't believe Trump has actually done anything wrong, nor do they believe the charges against him are political or legitimate.
In fact, half of registered voters (50%) agree that “the charges against Donald Trump are a form of election interference being perpetrated by liberal prosecutors, the Biden Administration, and the Department of Justice.”
Additionally, a similar majority (45%) agree that the prosecution of Trump is part of a Democratic plan to steal the 2024 election.
Similarly, when asked whether Trump did something wrong and should be prosecuted, whether he did something wrong and should not be prosecuted, or whether Trump did nothing wrong at all, only 48% of voters felt Trump did something wrong and should be prosecuted.
The remaining majority (52%) say Trump did something wrong but should not be prosecuted (13%), that Trump did nothing wrong (26%) or are unsure (13%).
In other words, there is considerable doubt among a majority or even a vast majority of voters as to whether the charges against Donald Trump are based on the rule of law, rather than simply a desire to prevent Trump from running in the November presidential election.
Polls back up the finding that a guilty verdict would have a minimal impact on the election: A majority of registered voters (53%) say a guilty plea would not affect their vote, and they are split on whether a guilty plea would make them less likely (25%) or more likely (23%) to vote for the former president, according to a recent Emerson Research Center survey. vote.
Especially in battleground states, Cook swing states vote Biden's “age and ability to serve out his term” was found to be a greater concern than Trump's legal issues by a 53% to 47% margin.
And despite Trump's legal troubles, Cook shows Trump leading in six of the seven battleground states, with Wisconsin a tie, further reflecting that Trump's lawsuits are having limited impact on his standing with this key voter group.
So the second reason why a conviction may not be the silver bullet Democrats are hoping for has to do primarily with the nature of the “hush money” case.
The New York City lawsuit does not carry the same gravity as the election or voter interference lawsuits, nor does it have the national security implications of the Florida documents lawsuit, both of which could potentially be much more damaging, but each has stalled for various reasons.
Put simply, while Trump's attempts to subvert democracy in the last election and his mishandling of classified documents certainly raise legitimate questions about his fitness for office, New York City's lawsuit is notably weak.
The hush-money lawsuits revolve largely around actions that Trump took before he was elected president, and are based on unproven legal theories that make it unclear what actual underlying crimes Trump is alleged to have committed.
The prosecution also made the odd decision to put Trump's former fixer, Michael Cohen, in a central role. Cohen is himself a convicted felon who served prison time after being convicted on multiple counts of fraud and lying to Congress, making him hardly a credible witness.
Cohen took the stand, admit He was charged with stealing from the Trump Organization and testified unconvincingly on key points of the trial, but also told jurors he had both a desire and a motive to see Trump convicted.
A guilty verdict is unlikely to deal a blow to Trump, and even if the jury acquits the former president or is unable to reach a verdict (a mismatched verdict), Trump's chances of re-election are likely to increase.
If either of those things happened, Trump would be able to argue with some credibility that a jury, even in heavily Democratic New York City, could not find that he committed a crime.
Moreover, for Trump, who has built an image as the only candidate who can challenge the left and win, an acquittal or disagreement would only reinforce the perception among many voters who already see these trials as politically driven.
Finally, Democrats would be wise to look to history for guidance in how these prosecutions might actually benefit the candidates they are so desperately trying to defeat.
Voters have generally been able to sense when one party is trying to use the law to their own advantage. Former President Bill Clinton in 1998 and President Trump himself in 2020 each achieved record highs in their elections. Approval During impeachment hearings that were perceived as clearly partisan.
To be clear, this is not to say there wouldn't be any negative consequences if Trump were convicted: As the election approaches, it's entirely possible that voters will be uncomfortable with a president who has been convicted of a felony, even if that person is arguably the weakest of the nearly 100 presidents Trump faces.
Rather, according to the SCR poll, Nationwide Polls showing Trump maintaining or expanding his lead over Biden suggest that even a conviction would not pose a major obstacle to his chances of winning the November election.
Douglas Shawn is a longtime Democratic political consultant.