US President Joe Biden's 2020 election campaign was based on a promise to restore normalcy after the chaotic Trump administration.
The question of who the “disruption candidate” will be is emerging as a growing concern as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, analysts at Piper Sandler said in a Thursday note.
Former President Donald Trump remains a controversial figure. Despite his legal troubles, Trump still has a large following and polls show he is no longer the undisputed upset candidate.
Meanwhile, voters' perceptions of President Biden's age and competence are also important factors: A Harvard-Harris Poll revealed that 59% of voters believe Biden's “age, declining memory and poor concentration” make his reelection “potentially dangerous to the country.”
Additionally, 63% believe Biden is making more frequent public gaffes, raising concerns about whether he can complete a second term with a smooth transition without health issues.
There is a widespread view among voters that Biden is not significantly better than Trump on ethical or legal issues, and while they are slightly more likely to believe that Trump committed crimes, they suspect the charges are politically motivated.
Meanwhile, Hunter Biden's impending trial and allegations that Joe Biden was involved in his son's business dealings further complicate the president's ethics situation.
Polls show that voters trust Trump more than Biden to deal with the major challenges facing the country, from international turmoil to domestic issues such as inflation that are making daily life difficult for many Americans.
“There is unrest around the world, at the southern border and on college campuses, and voters trust Trump more than Biden by wide margins to address nearly every major challenge facing the country,” Piper Sandler analysts wrote.
“While soaring inflation may not qualify as a disruption in the narrow sense, it has made daily life much harder for average voters and is their top issue, for which they place much of the blame squarely on Biden,” they added.
Perceptions of both candidates are a mix of distrust and concern, making it hard to pinpoint one “disruptive candidate,” but the looming trials and ongoing ethical questions surrounding Biden and Trump suggest disruption is possible on either side, depending on how those issues play out.
Perhaps most importantly, Biden's stance on protecting democracy, an issue Democrats have tried to make central to their campaign, has not been as strong as they hoped. In key battleground states, Biden and Trump are roughly even on the issue, illustrating the lack of a clear advantage for the incumbent president.
