As registration for Iran's presidential elections opened on May 30 and closes on June 3, early predictions and speculation about candidates are circulating, with some previously ruled out figures coming to the front.
Following the death of Ebrahim Raisi and other senior officials in a helicopter crash near the northern border with Azerbaijan on May 19, several individuals have indicated whether they will appear in person at Tehran's Interior Ministry to register, including some familiar names. Unlike many other countries, presidential elections in Iran are highly restricted, with the Guardian Council excluding non-aligned candidates, including women, who are automatically barred from running due to their gender. Those with degrees below a master's degree are also not required to apply for the position; previously, a doctorate was required.
Iranian analysts say Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has dropped out of running for president, instead focusing on retaining his position, which seems likely unless an unexpected turn of events forces him to run by behind-the-scenes power brokers.
Former Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani has been given tacit approval to run for president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Larijani is currently evaluating his position and has reportedly secured the support of former President Hassan Rouhani. If elected, his cabinet is expected to include former Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Kamal Kharrazi as Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council.
Ultra-hardline Saeed Jalili has announced his candidacy and has established himself as the main contender, but he remains deeply unpopular with many groups in Iran due to his cold personality and lack of charisma.
In a turn of events, former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is considering running but is aware that the Guardian Council is unlikely to approve his candidacy. He is still in the evaluation phase, and all eyes will be on the Ministry of Interior in the city's Dr Fatemi Square in the coming days.
Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakhani has announced his intention to run, but it is unlikely that he will. His candidacy would likely split the ultra-hardline vote, as would Roads Minister Mehrdad Bazlpash, whose candidacy began during President Ebrahim Raisi's funeral.
Acting President Mohammad Mokbel, who is currently busy with official duties, is seriously considering running for office. If he decides to run, the cabinet would be largely similar to that of President Raisi's government, with key figures such as Foreign Minister Bagheri Hani likely to remain in their positions.
Mohsen Rezaei, an economic adviser to Mr Raisi and a regular candidate, is running again despite having little chance of winning, and his candidacy, along with the other candidates, has become a running joke in recent elections.
Parviz Fattah, head of Khomeini's executive branch, is also a likely candidate and could pose a major challenge to Larijani and Jalili.
The reformist camp's candidate, Mohamed Reza Aref, who served as vice president under former president Mohamed Khatami, is expected to run but may withdraw in favor of Larijani. Similarly, Esak Jahangiri, who served as vice president under President Hassan Rouhani, is expected to announce his candidacy soon. However, according to international reports after Raisi's funeral, his camp is currently under a state television ban and parts of Rouhani's speeches have been cut, making his chances of winning low.
Current Science Minister Mohamed Ali Zollfigol also announced that he would not run for president, saying he was “not qualified to run for president” in comments to reporters on May 26. In 2022, Zollfigol had four research papers retracted by the Royal Society of Chemistry due to concerns about the reliability of chemicals used in the published studies and the reproducibility of experiments.
Reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian recently announced his intention to run, but is not expected to become a serious candidate.
The four main contenders are likely to be Larijani, Jalili, Mokbel and Fattah, but with the registration deadline on June 3, candidates still have time to maneuver and lobby, which could see significant changes to the final lineup.
We will provide you with further updates as the registration period progresses. Register for our Iranian services.
